There was good and bad news in the final of the Springbok greyhound novice hurdle at Wimbledon on Tuesday night. My ante post picks seemed to have differing chances having reached this stage, with my original 11/2 shot Nebuchadnezzar now quoted at 4/5 and Deanridge Casper initially at 66/1 still the outsider of the field but now into 16/1.
Unfortunately the odds on favourite never fired at all being slowly away and then swerving right from the start and found himself in amongst some of the other dogs which he didnt seem to like, finishing a never dangerous fourth. There was some joy though as Casper came away in second place and although he stumbled after one of the hurdles losing some momentum which resulted in him being overtaken for that position, he still finished a creditable third to bring home the each way money at a quarter of the odds. The winner Bomber Bailey put up by far his best performance of the event with the quickest time of all the heats so there can be no complaints about the justification of the result on the night.
In the delayed Arc heats at Swindon, both my picks Shaneboy Luke and Corrig Vieri made it through to the semi finals, the former finding trouble in running but still managing to do enough for third place while the latter (who I also backed individually at 8/11) won comfortably in a heat weakened by two withdrawals.
Over in Ireland at Shelbourne Park, the John Dunne Memorial saw the loss of ante post favourite Faypoint Man from the event after he was badly impeded but my other picks - Barefoot Bryan, Mardocs Foster and Skywalker Queen - all sailed through convincingly with successes on the night in their individual heats. They do battle again this Saturday in the semi finals.
I also had a couple of other winners on Wimbledon's Sky card on Tuesday in the supporting races with Lorrys Options obliging at 11/4 and the ever reliable Flying Winner doing what she does best at 8/15.
So all things considered another excellent week on the dogs, just wish the same could be said for the snooker.
Unfortunately I rather half heartedly got involved in Barry Hearn's event the Championship League which this week held Groups 3 and 4 which act as feeders for the Premier League proper. Having priced up the matches, I found very few differing odds from the layers but I decided to take on a couple of players who had been struggling in the qualifying matches lately, Barry Hawkins and Stuart Bingham. However as it happens they both performed very well, Hawkins qualifying for the semi finals of both Groups while Bingham went one step better and actually won Group 4 as the rank outsider beforehand priced at 9/1, beating John Higgins in the final. Higgins himself was awful in the opening group but then suddenly transformed overnight into the player we know he can be while others like Neil Robertson were very inconsistent, losing eight frames in a row at one stage then coming back to win 4-0 in his next match.
All in all I think its safe to say it was pretty much a bookies benefit, perhaps laying is the way to go but that means returning to Betfair, something which I'm reluctant to do until they get their house in order. So instead think I'll explore other avenues and perhaps only join the Championship League markets at the semi final stages in the future when its a straight best of five shootout. I did notice the totally out of sorts Ken Doherty is in the next group so it is tempting to go against him from the start but judging by the events of this week he'll probably win it lol.
At least the Welsh Open is on the horizon next week and the home players have done exceptionally well in qualifying with almost a full complement - Ian Preece and Paul Davies battled through to reach the first round proper while the likes of Mark Williams, Matthew Stevens and Dominic Dale - now commuting from Austria - have all had their last qualifiers held over to the venue just in case.
On to the outright market and as usual I'll be picking one from each quarter. The first quarter looks stronger at the top end with the likes of Selby, Perry and Williams in the mix. Therefore I'll look to the bottom of that section and as both Peter Ebdon (especially) and Ryan Day have been struggling a bit in the last few events I'll risk a few quid on both Anthony Hamilton (25/1) and Michael Judge (28/1) to win the first quarter, as if they both won they would play each other in round two in a match that could go either way for a quarter final place. Of the two, mainly because he was trading at bigger odds at the time, have plumped for Judge in the outright market with an each way bet at 200/1 (now into 150s), ever the optimist!!
In section two most peoples eyes will be drawn towards Ali Carter but I feel I've given him enough chances of late, he's flattered to deceive for most of his career and he rather lost the plot at the business end of both the UK and the Masters when my money was down. Therefore I'll take Graeme Dott each way at 66/1 to try to get his career back on track, at least he is a proven winner in the past unlike Carter and did show a bit of the old form in the recent Masters match which he lost narrowly to Stephen Maguire. He starts out against Mike Dunn before maybe taking on Carter in round two, if the latter can beat old stager Jimmy White in his opener.
Shaun Murphy is probably the other one to consider from this section, but although he looks to have a good draw, his form still didnt seem totally convincing in the UK even though he won it and he looks short enough in the betting for me. Plus his opening opponent Barry Pinches seems to have at last found some form this season with good wins over Judd Trump and Jamie Cope in qualifying.
In quarter three Maguire and Ding are on a collision course towards the top end of that section so again dropping down below Mark Allen at 25/1 catches the eye, starting off against Joe Swail which he ought to have a fair chance of coming through before taking on either Stephen Hendry or Martin Gould, another one he shouldnt be frightened off nowadays.
And finally into the fourth quarter Ronnie O Sullivan should see off Steve Davis but could then face another grinding type of opponent in either Fergal O Brien or Marco Fu so maybe best to give him a swerve at the odds and decided to give Neil Robertson a bash at 25/1. He comes up against Jamie Burnett first, who played exceptionally well in qualifying for this but doesnt usually follow it up nowadays in the main venues.
Anyhow thats the prognosis and at least they're decent prices so hopefully they won't all bomb out at the first hurdle!
In the match betting have stuck mainly with odds against chances even though there look to be some obvious short ones, in a first to five given the inconsistency of some of the players this season I wouldnt have total faith in them all doing the business.
Amongst those I've played are Hicks 11/5, Gould 21/10, Judge 2/1, Hamilton 6/5, O Brien 7/4 and Harold evens along with a double of Allen and Williams on the opening day paying 6/5ish.
Coverage is on BBC Wales and Eurosport.
Finally theres a full programme of the National League in the gaelic football circles as long as the weather doesnt intervene. Armagh opened up their campaign with a fine away win at Wexford a fortnight ago and taken the 2/5 for them to see off Laois who disappointed against Kildare.
Also like Derry at 4/9 to follow up their success over Mayo with a win over Westmeath and will risk Meath who didnt show alot in a heavy loss to Cork but this looks a more realistic proposition against Fermanagh and the 8/11 odds were too tempting to resist.
Thats all for now,
See you soon Rick
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