Gould-en ending to Welsh Open qualifiers

Well it seems a long time since I last did the blog but its only a week, had plenty of ups and downs in that time that it seems a lifetime!!
The main stresses came about via the recent Welsh Open snooker qualifiers which were held in Prestatyn. With three books pricing them up for the most part, there were plenty of opportunities but after making rather a monumental blunder half way through I just about came out of it intact after a nerve-wracking end to the final match of the final round.
First up I got involved in Sky's "to qualify" market which is constructed by one (or maybe even two) of the more knowledgeable compilers in the business so there are certainly no easy pickings and hasnt been one I have been able to get on top of so far.
Nevertheless upped my outlay this time and despite getting a fair few through to the final round, they began to drop like stones, Tom Ford was beaten 5-2 by Steve Davis, Stuart Pettman by the same score to Michael Judge and Ricky Walden 5-1 to Fergal O Brien (had also had double the stakes on the man from Flintshire to compound matters).
That meant if Martin Gould went under to Nigel Bond, I had lost my whole portfolio, amounting to something like £850 but in a tense finale he edged out my former fellow local league player 5-4 to land the 9/2 odds which I had also topped up at 10/11 in the match betting markets.
The tension wasnt all down to that however as mid way through the event I had what can only be described as a mad moment by lumping on Judd Trump in a variety of bets, singles and combinations to beat Barry Pinches, who I had seen hopelessly out of touch in the Masters qualifiers before Christmas losing to Lewis Roberts, a rookie on the tour.
However on this occasion Pinches wasnt missing when he was in, compiling a 136 break amongst three frames he won practically in one visit to oust Trump 5-3 with the Bristol youngster failing to qualify for an event proper for the first time this season.
I started off by putting Trump in a sizeable treble (the other two both won in a canter of course) but then decided I wasnt content with that, having a single with both the original compilers and then PP when they opened at a slightly better price, getting combined odds of about 1/3.
Of course I also had him in my "to qualify" bets too, so the whole schamoodle totted up to about £900 which is far more than my average stake resting on one outcome.
Hopefully I have re-learned a lesson not to link one match to many different bets, to be honest I have done this in the past and shouldnt be going over the same mistakes so will have to write these rules down and stick as rigidly as possible to them in future.
I think the main motivation was actually travelling to see some of the matches like the Masters qualifiers, I wanted to make the most out of what I saw, in this case an out of touch Pinches, so was trying to capitalise on that too quickly when of course the reality in snooker is that things can change very quickly in a few weeks.
Anyhow luckily the rest of the matches went pretty well with some decent winners at odds against - Ian Preece winning twice at 2/1 against Andrew Higginson and Stuart Bingham - plus Paul Davies obliging at 9/4 against new dad Barry Hawkins. In the end I was in profit on the match betting somehow but the "to qualify" market bets cancelled that out.
In some ways it was an opportunity missed as it should have been a big earner but in the circumstances I was happy enough to come out of it with no damage and a lesson learned.
The Championship League cranks into action again next week with Round 3 so will be compiling some prices over the weekend, the new players this time are John Higgins, Neil Robertson and Barry Hawkins who come in to join Mark Williams, Ding Junhui, Joe Perry and the ever present Ali Carter.
While on the subject of the baize our own local league team as expected found the visit of the current leaders too much to handle but we put up a decent show with a narrow 3-2 defeat. With myself losing on the black and another of us on the pink it could even have been a grand victory but we'd have settled for two points beforehand. The young lad I brought in at the start of the season is starting to impress a bit now with three successive wins and seems to have gotten over his temperament problems for the time being anyhow, though now of course one of the other teams at the top has been showing an interest in getting a hold of him for next season. I told them we want at least £1-m and nothing less, plus he will lose my coaching skills too of course lol!!
My individual defeat ended a run of eight successive victories which was much needed after a bit of a dodgy start but I blame it on going out cavorting in the snow with our border collie, some of the drifts up on the moor were coming up to my waist and by the time I had waded up there and back again I was stiffening up by the time of the match. I started to feel aches where I didnt know I had muscles and the cue action felt awful, in the circumstances not really sure how I managed to stay in contention so long. Anyway no matches to report next week as the team we were due to play have disbanded, if they had seen me playing last week they would probably have gotten back together again very quickly as they licked their lips at the prospect lol.
On to the dogs and have just witnessed my two ante post picks in the Springbok at Wimbledon get through to the final.
Was cursing my luck when both Nebuchadnezzar (11/2) and Deanridge Casper (66/1 ew) were drawn in the same heat with only two qualifying but straight from the traps they were at the head of affairs and had the race between them off the final bend, the shorter priced dog always holding sway by a couple of lengths or so.
With the favourite falling in the first heat, both should have a good chance of being in the money on Tuesday on the live Sky card so thats an exciting one to look forward to.
In the Arc at Swindon, my four ante post picks were halved after the first round heats but favourite Shaneboy Luke (4/1) and Corrig Vieri (20/1) both made it through to the next stage.
And in Ireland after watching the first round heats of the Joe Dunne Memorial puppy event at Shelbourne, I came up with a four dog portfolio from the next round onwards consisting of the impressive Faypoint Man (4/1), fast finishing Barefoot Bryan (7/1) plus kennelmates Mardocs Foster (16/1) and Skywalker Queen (20/1) who fought out a close finish in one of the heats last weekend.
The opening weekend of the gaelic football leagues was mixed from a betting viewpoint with two losers cancelling out two winners. In the outright markets, both my Division One picks Derry (8/1) and Galway (10/1) won their opening matches, as did Monaghan (5/1) in Division Two and Louth (8/1) in Division Three while Wicklow (7/2) earned a creditable draw travelling to one of the other likely challengers Antrim.
The hurling comes to the fore this Sunday and I have ignored the more obvious claims of Kilkenny to go with Galway (6/1) and Clare (20/1) in Division One outright. Not sure I will be having any bets in round one though as most of the teams are depleted at this stage of the season and its all a bit up in the air as to how the teams will cope.
There is a skeleton football card with Division Four only but again at first glance nothing much stands out.
In the traditional football world, I enjoyed a fine victory for my team Derby County at local rivals Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup 4th round on Wednesday, despite getting caught in a horrendous traffic jam en route which meant we missed the first 10 minutes (including the opening Forest goal) it was all worth it in the end.
Was panicking a bit on the way back to the car though after our win as we found ourselves amongst a host of angry locals and then My Dad, who had come with me, apparently completely oblivious to the situation, started asking me questions about who I thought played well for Derby at the top of his voice (he also had his earphones in for the radio and didnt realise how loudly he was talking). I ignored him anyway and scurried off ahead, leaving the Forest fans wondering who he was talking to lol.
Anyway on the evidence of Wednesday I'm laying both Plymouth (who host Derby) and Forest (who entertain QPR) on Saturday. Both teams I'm taking on have injury problems and Derby have played some very good football under Clough in the last two or three games while QPR were quite impressive at Pride Park a few games ago with their new signings fitting in pretty quickly it seemed.
Finally the aussie rules season gets underway this weekend with the pre season tournament the NAB Cup staging its first match between West Coast and Collingwood. A fair few of the teams dont consider winning the be all and end all in this knockout event so perhaps there is leeway to find an outsider who is at least trying to do the business. Therefore I've gone with two improving teams from last year Richmond Tigers at 12/1 and North Melbourne Kangaroos at 16/1, although they are both away from home which does seem a bit of a negative looking at past results in the cup.
Speaking of which I had a rather bizarre dream about kangaroos last night but will refrain from the rest of the story or I think someone will be trying to get me into a straightjacket pretty soon!
Anyway, onwards and upwards
All the best for now
Rick