I find it quite interesting that the figures Betfair released a couple of weeks ago (which I have just gotten round to in my outdated Racing Post) show that they were in fact performing very healthily pre the premium charge era which makes their claims they needed everyone paying "their fair share" for the good of the future now look rather spurious to say the least. As I said then and I say it again now, however they dress it up this is against the ethics of punting and a very selfish greedy decision, of this there can now be no doubt.
Anyway I've been ranting enough about this on the Betdaq forums so dont want to get bogged down with it on here but it seems most of BF's press releases can be taken with a pinch of salt nowadays as its spin, spin and more spin for the most part I'm sad to say.
I notice the Racing Post are urging everyone to sign the "get racing back on the Beeb" petition following their decision to axe the majority of jump racing in the future barring the Grand National, but they were rather less urgent when the matter of the premium charges reared its head, in fact there was hardly any criticism at all about the whole thing in the paper which was very disappointing.
I agree however it is in every keen racing fans interests to maintain as much terrestial coverage as possible for the sport to prevent it slipping further out of the limelight as sports betting continues to challenge on the horizon. I openly admit I have gone more down this sphere myself in latter years but have always had it at the back of my mind I would one day return to the nags when I had the time, which hopefully is fast approaching (only two weeks behind with the form now chaps in the ongoing saga lol).
The dogs have proved a great boon though since I started betting seriously on them in the last six months or so and I watched a great final of the John Casey Open in Shelbourne on the net last Saturday night where I had my each way ante post vouchers still running on Jemmy Doodlebeag at 40/1 and The Other Achill at 50/1.
And what a cracker it was with Jemmy bouncing out of trap four and cutting across to the rail in front of the three inside dogs to take the lead at the first bend, thus negating a tricky draw and then holding on gamely from the well backed Acordello to win by a short head in the home straight. Certainly the latter dog is one to watch as he looked sure to go by on the home turn but this is where Jemmy's stamina really kicked in and he would not be denied.
As a bonus my other pick The Other Achill, who had slipped back into his old habits and started very slowly, ran on strongly into fourth place which was enough to secure the each way money at a quarter of the odds to supplement the winnings.
You cant beat the excitement of a night like that, I said it when I picked Shelbourne Aston at 40s+ in the Irish Derby and I'll say it again here, even though the stakes were slightly smaller this time, the adrenalin rush is just fantastic.
The latest greyhound ante post market is the Springbok for novice hurdlers at Wimbledon, which is obviously not the easiest to pick from with some of the better dogs on paper not always jumping too well but have initially gone with Nebuchadnazzar at 11/2, who I saw staying on well when short headed in one of the trials and seems to have recovered OK from a recent fall the time before, plus Deanridge Casper e/w at 66s which is a much bigger price than some other books. He won a recent trial in decent style too. The heats start on Saturday night and quite often the best time to go in is after you have watched the opening round where quite often a couple of dogs can catch the eye at decent prices.
My team Derby County take on Coventry City in the football tomorrow and this is a massive match for the Rams having now slipped into the bottom three, plus we are offloading Giles Barnes on loan to Fulham it seems so the rest of the lads will hopefully step up. Must admit I've risked a dabble here at 5/4 as I saw the Sky Blues in the return fixture earlier in the season and wasnt overly impressed in a 1-1 draw (they equalised in the last minutes).
Football of the gaelic variety gets underway at a county level this weekend with the National Football Leagues reconvening.
Have had a few dabbles on the outrights (where the odds differ from my ratings from last year), though most teams are not at full strength just yet, and also will be having a few punts on the match betting which turned out to be quite lucrative last year.
There are though new experimental hardline rules coming in this time around which could mean a fair few early baths so perhaps wise not to go too mad with the stakes at present.
The London team are usually the whipping boys of gaelic football but did manage a win against Sligo in the consolation event The Tommy Murphy Cup last year so that should give them a bit of encouragement, plus there has apparently been a bit of an exodus of players over here from Ireland in the close season which might boost the numbers of the squad.
They start off with a home match against Leitrim at Ruislip on Sunday and might try to get down if at all possible, have got my new replica shirt at the ready to join the one man and his dog in the crowd (unless the Leitrim faithful are out in force)!!
The snooker returns with the Welsh Open qualifiers in midweek, the China Open rather petered out with a hit and miss final day but made a reasonable profit overall despite Barry Hawkins carrying my money and throwing in a stinker, losing 5-0 to David Gray who had seemed well on the downgrade. Of course I had forgotten the Hawkins family had just had a recent addition and this may well have been in a factor due to a lack of practice time for one of the less natural players on the tour.
Our own team continued our good run with a 3-2 win over the supposed No 1 team at the club in a local derby match but with their captain sadly unavailable due to a family illness it was a very muted atmosphere in the circumstances lacking the usual rivalry and banter. We take on the current league leaders next week so that might be a bridge too far but having won eight out of eleven matches so far, anything else is a bonus from here.
See you soon
Rick
Friday, 30 January 2009
Friday, 23 January 2009
First the bad news, hope you're not in a rush!
Just wondering about whether to deliver the good news or the bad news first this week as theres plenty of the wrong sort and not so much of the other!!
OK will get the woes out of the way first. As you will now know my opposition of Ronnie O Sullivan in the later stages of the Masters tournament last weekend proved futile as he easily disposed of a limp Ali Carter in the quarter final and then went on to edge Mark Selby in the resulting final 10-8.
This brought me back to one of my original rules of snooker betting, that is never be too taken in by one performance and this is where I probably slipped up with the Carter bet after he had looked ultra-impressive in beating Peter Ebdon 6-0 in the previous round, the 10-0 h2h with O Sullivan was obviously eating into his mind during the quarter final and he eventually imploded with a series of wild thrashes in desperation as the match slipped away from him.
The final itself was one lost by Selby I feel rather than won by O Sullivan, certainly the Jester had numerous opportunities to put the match to bed, in fact there must have been four or five frames where he only needed one more ball to win them yet he somehow managed to let them all slip through his grasp. So not alot wrong with the bet in this one looking at it from the long term (I took odds of nearly 9/4) but still dont get paid for a narrow miss on this occasion, though did make a bit of profit on the tournament as a whole.
The Rocket did look close to implosion at one stage of the match in particular, where personally I felt he was doing an exaggerated mimicking of the time Selby was taking around the table, taking four and a half minutes over a buckshee saftey shot at one stage (including pouring and sipping a glass of water) which to me looked rather poor sportsmanship as he was losing the match at the time. Perhaps I'm just an old fuddy duddy lol but he does wind me up sometimes I have to admit!
I have decided to abort the ice hockey betting again, I've had about three goes on the NHL this season and none have proved fruitful in the longterm, had a couple of good weeks after spotting some trends from earlier this season but that strategy turned to dust as many results were just not what the formbook would have suggested beforehand and all the good work of the previous fourteen days was eradicated. My last proper bet was on Boston Bruins who were leading 4-2 against St Louis Blues with a minute and twenty seconds left, yet they somehow managed to concede twice including a goal a tenth of a second before the end of normal time (which for my money should have been disallowed anyway for high sticking), so that is when you know your luck is out. A shootout loss ensued and as Ladbrokes offer a stake refund for all such bets (to be used on NHL) I had to semi-reluctantly have another dabble which also fell flat on its face!
I still might have a few plays on the IIHF World Cup when that starts in April as I usually pay a subscription and watch all the games online plus perhaps with the wider diversity of standard in that particular competition it might be more fathomable.
Also my expected lift for my football team Derby County last weekend against QPR (following the instalment of Nigel Clough as manager) didnt materialise as they slumped to a miserable 2-0 defeat. Perhaps as someone said to me they got their lift the week before when he was sat in the stands but still this was disappointing for his first proper game in charge.
He did take a big risk by ditching the successful formation implemented by departed caretaker Chris Hutchings in the previous match and returning to the one favoured by Paul Jewell which had performed miserably in the main.
There was much more encouragement on Tuesday night though with a spirited effort in the 4-2 defeat at Manchester United (4-3 loss on aggregate) in the Carling Cup semi final and if they can carry that into tonight's match with Nottingham Forest they might be more competitive. Its certainly a game we dont want to lose, especially as the sight of our pugnacious ex-manager Billy Davies in a red scarf running down the touchline with his arms aloft would be quite sickening!!
I notice he is having a pop at our chairman in the papers again, saying he wasnt happy with the amount of times they met up but in all honesty I feel he engineered his own departure from the club to save face when things were going pear shaped in the Premiership. To ask for £40-million was quite ridiculous for a club of Derby's stature at that stage of development and I think he thought it would be better for him if he got out without a relegation on his cv. Given the amount of time it took another club to employ him though not sure that particular plan worked too well!!
The greyhound racing pretty much held its own. Droopys Carvalho won the Coronation Cup final at Romford to land the ante post odds of 3/1 and I also got The Other Achill and Jemmy Doodlebeag through to the John Casey Open final at Shelbourne tomorrow, both each way the first four places at 50/1 and 40/1 respectively so that is quite exciting.
Jemmy has won his last two heats with a flying start and he does stay very well (this trip probably a bit on the sharp side really) but perhaps doesnt have the ideal draw in four though could still nick a place if he doesnt trap out maybe.
The Other Achill ran a fine race in second to Kildallon Maid in the semi final, taking a bad bump and still closing rapidly on the winner in the straight and should have no excuses here as the sole wide seed. He often used to ruin his chance at the lids but has been coming out much better in this event, hope it can continue in the final.
Was reading a David Ashforth column in the Racing Post early in the month and have found he used to use the same method of looking at race results that I now use for the dogs online, that is I get the results section up, click on the meeting and time with my hand firmly in place covering the screen and then edge it up gradually from sixth upwards until I eventually reach the winner, which gives you an impending feeling of excitement as you progress if the name of your dog hasnt yet been unveiled, of course its a bit of an anti climax if instead of being the winner your dog was a non runner though lol!! At least it proves I'm not mad then unless we both are!!
Returning to the snooker and the China Open qualifiers are being held at Prestatyn(!!) at the moment, and thankfully have managed to claw back some money on these up to now.
I had a double on Kuldesh Johal and Peter Lines in the first round on Wednesday that paid 7/10 for a fair amount which saw them both score 5-0 wins and also took Robert Stephen at evens who overcame Supoj Saenla 5-1. Matt Selt got rather bogged down in his match with the grinding Andy Lee though and he lost 5-3 as my 4/7 bet bit the dust there.
On to Thursday and I went with a few lesser known names against some more illustrious but struggling opponents and on the whole it worked. I stuck with Johal and Stephen again and they both won 5-4 from being two frames down against Barry Pinches and Liu Song respectively while Aditya Mehta easily overcame the veteran David Roe 5-1 which made three decent winners at 11/10, 7/4 and 5/4. There were two losses though as Mark Joyce went under 5-3 to Scott Mackenzie at 4/5, reaching the Masters qualifier final doesnt seem conducive to doing well in subsequent ranking events as Kurt Maflin found out last year; and the the other vanquished was Lewis Roberts (7/4) who lost 5-3 to David Gray.
Couldnt see many bets today and the only one I picked was Ricky Walden at 8/15 who had little trouble in overcoming Andy Hicks 5-1 so hopefully things are picking up again!!
Will have to give a mention to our snooker team before I go as we managed a superb 3-2 win over the reigning league champions on home baize on Wednesday night, following up our win against them in the cup match group section and we consolidated our place in fourth position in the league which is some feat really as I was expecting us to be struggling at the bottom.
Perhaps I'm just too much of a pessimist sometimes. Suppose when you think like that though anything you gain is a bonus, its alot better than being continually disappointed!!
All the best for now
Rick
OK will get the woes out of the way first. As you will now know my opposition of Ronnie O Sullivan in the later stages of the Masters tournament last weekend proved futile as he easily disposed of a limp Ali Carter in the quarter final and then went on to edge Mark Selby in the resulting final 10-8.
This brought me back to one of my original rules of snooker betting, that is never be too taken in by one performance and this is where I probably slipped up with the Carter bet after he had looked ultra-impressive in beating Peter Ebdon 6-0 in the previous round, the 10-0 h2h with O Sullivan was obviously eating into his mind during the quarter final and he eventually imploded with a series of wild thrashes in desperation as the match slipped away from him.
The final itself was one lost by Selby I feel rather than won by O Sullivan, certainly the Jester had numerous opportunities to put the match to bed, in fact there must have been four or five frames where he only needed one more ball to win them yet he somehow managed to let them all slip through his grasp. So not alot wrong with the bet in this one looking at it from the long term (I took odds of nearly 9/4) but still dont get paid for a narrow miss on this occasion, though did make a bit of profit on the tournament as a whole.
The Rocket did look close to implosion at one stage of the match in particular, where personally I felt he was doing an exaggerated mimicking of the time Selby was taking around the table, taking four and a half minutes over a buckshee saftey shot at one stage (including pouring and sipping a glass of water) which to me looked rather poor sportsmanship as he was losing the match at the time. Perhaps I'm just an old fuddy duddy lol but he does wind me up sometimes I have to admit!
I have decided to abort the ice hockey betting again, I've had about three goes on the NHL this season and none have proved fruitful in the longterm, had a couple of good weeks after spotting some trends from earlier this season but that strategy turned to dust as many results were just not what the formbook would have suggested beforehand and all the good work of the previous fourteen days was eradicated. My last proper bet was on Boston Bruins who were leading 4-2 against St Louis Blues with a minute and twenty seconds left, yet they somehow managed to concede twice including a goal a tenth of a second before the end of normal time (which for my money should have been disallowed anyway for high sticking), so that is when you know your luck is out. A shootout loss ensued and as Ladbrokes offer a stake refund for all such bets (to be used on NHL) I had to semi-reluctantly have another dabble which also fell flat on its face!
I still might have a few plays on the IIHF World Cup when that starts in April as I usually pay a subscription and watch all the games online plus perhaps with the wider diversity of standard in that particular competition it might be more fathomable.
Also my expected lift for my football team Derby County last weekend against QPR (following the instalment of Nigel Clough as manager) didnt materialise as they slumped to a miserable 2-0 defeat. Perhaps as someone said to me they got their lift the week before when he was sat in the stands but still this was disappointing for his first proper game in charge.
He did take a big risk by ditching the successful formation implemented by departed caretaker Chris Hutchings in the previous match and returning to the one favoured by Paul Jewell which had performed miserably in the main.
There was much more encouragement on Tuesday night though with a spirited effort in the 4-2 defeat at Manchester United (4-3 loss on aggregate) in the Carling Cup semi final and if they can carry that into tonight's match with Nottingham Forest they might be more competitive. Its certainly a game we dont want to lose, especially as the sight of our pugnacious ex-manager Billy Davies in a red scarf running down the touchline with his arms aloft would be quite sickening!!
I notice he is having a pop at our chairman in the papers again, saying he wasnt happy with the amount of times they met up but in all honesty I feel he engineered his own departure from the club to save face when things were going pear shaped in the Premiership. To ask for £40-million was quite ridiculous for a club of Derby's stature at that stage of development and I think he thought it would be better for him if he got out without a relegation on his cv. Given the amount of time it took another club to employ him though not sure that particular plan worked too well!!
The greyhound racing pretty much held its own. Droopys Carvalho won the Coronation Cup final at Romford to land the ante post odds of 3/1 and I also got The Other Achill and Jemmy Doodlebeag through to the John Casey Open final at Shelbourne tomorrow, both each way the first four places at 50/1 and 40/1 respectively so that is quite exciting.
Jemmy has won his last two heats with a flying start and he does stay very well (this trip probably a bit on the sharp side really) but perhaps doesnt have the ideal draw in four though could still nick a place if he doesnt trap out maybe.
The Other Achill ran a fine race in second to Kildallon Maid in the semi final, taking a bad bump and still closing rapidly on the winner in the straight and should have no excuses here as the sole wide seed. He often used to ruin his chance at the lids but has been coming out much better in this event, hope it can continue in the final.
Was reading a David Ashforth column in the Racing Post early in the month and have found he used to use the same method of looking at race results that I now use for the dogs online, that is I get the results section up, click on the meeting and time with my hand firmly in place covering the screen and then edge it up gradually from sixth upwards until I eventually reach the winner, which gives you an impending feeling of excitement as you progress if the name of your dog hasnt yet been unveiled, of course its a bit of an anti climax if instead of being the winner your dog was a non runner though lol!! At least it proves I'm not mad then unless we both are!!
Returning to the snooker and the China Open qualifiers are being held at Prestatyn(!!) at the moment, and thankfully have managed to claw back some money on these up to now.
I had a double on Kuldesh Johal and Peter Lines in the first round on Wednesday that paid 7/10 for a fair amount which saw them both score 5-0 wins and also took Robert Stephen at evens who overcame Supoj Saenla 5-1. Matt Selt got rather bogged down in his match with the grinding Andy Lee though and he lost 5-3 as my 4/7 bet bit the dust there.
On to Thursday and I went with a few lesser known names against some more illustrious but struggling opponents and on the whole it worked. I stuck with Johal and Stephen again and they both won 5-4 from being two frames down against Barry Pinches and Liu Song respectively while Aditya Mehta easily overcame the veteran David Roe 5-1 which made three decent winners at 11/10, 7/4 and 5/4. There were two losses though as Mark Joyce went under 5-3 to Scott Mackenzie at 4/5, reaching the Masters qualifier final doesnt seem conducive to doing well in subsequent ranking events as Kurt Maflin found out last year; and the the other vanquished was Lewis Roberts (7/4) who lost 5-3 to David Gray.
Couldnt see many bets today and the only one I picked was Ricky Walden at 8/15 who had little trouble in overcoming Andy Hicks 5-1 so hopefully things are picking up again!!
Will have to give a mention to our snooker team before I go as we managed a superb 3-2 win over the reigning league champions on home baize on Wednesday night, following up our win against them in the cup match group section and we consolidated our place in fourth position in the league which is some feat really as I was expecting us to be struggling at the bottom.
Perhaps I'm just too much of a pessimist sometimes. Suppose when you think like that though anything you gain is a bonus, its alot better than being continually disappointed!!
All the best for now
Rick
Friday, 16 January 2009
You win some, you lose some
One of those up and down weeks which kept swinging to and fro on the betting front. Started off on a poor note as I was still recovering from being bedridden all last Friday and perhaps being starved of action for 24 hours, flung myself into a few bets without really researching them too well, which usually only results in one outcome, empty pockets for a while!!
Certainly taking 1/2 for Shelbourne Aston in the second round heat of the John Casey Open didnt do the coffers any good and as the dog was baulked and could only stay on into fourth place, I also lost the 5/2 outright market bet too unless there are two withdrawals come Saturday's semi finals (in which case he would take his place as one of the reserves).
The other ante post market bets at much bigger prices (Jimmy Doodlebeag and The Other Achill) both actually won their heats but went unbacked at decent odds, they still have their work cut out in the semis though as only two qualify from the three heats which is a bit cut-throat in a high quality event like this.
In Sky's Tuesday night action, as I half expected Romeo Maldini confirmed his recent lacklustre displays in finishing out of the money in the Prestige Stakes, the way he ran the last three times seemed to imply he wasn't handling the track at Hall Green too well but he had won well there prior to this event so it was all rather puzzling. Also my small stakes outsider failed to make the top three so all the outright market money drew a blank in this one.
It wasnt all doom and gloom however and on the supporting card I managed to back a couple of winners Capel Wilson and Swift Jade both at 6/4. The latter looked a bit of a rogue in that she swept up to the leaders at a hundred miles an hour (OK a slight exaggeration!) a couple of bends from home but then seemed quite content to run alongside the other prominent dog so in the end it was a headbob on the line, though luckily it went in my favour.
As I speak I've since backed three winners and a runner up since then with Gorteen Dancer (2/1), Midway Skipper (4/6) and Birchwood Sylv (3/1) obliging and Vatican Skye being rather unlucky in scrimmaging before a strong finishing second at 2/1.
Looking at the ice hockey I've still maintained an upward trend though it has only been a gradual success rate this week, I probably staked too much on one of the unsuccessful doubles I had which set me back a bit but have managed six out of nine winners overall, though all of them at odds on admittedly. In fact was up until 3am last night watching some of the online streams though not sure it was worthwhile in the end as I fnished £25 up for the night!!
As for the Masters snooker the two match bets were landed as Ding beat Murphy at odds against with a 6-4 win for the Chinese plus Ali Carter as expected had little trouble in disposing of Peter Ebdon which now means the h2h for that particular matchup is 7-0 to the man from Tiptree.
Have followed up with a smaller bet on him to beat his nemesis Ronnie O Sullivan tonight, who he trails 10-0 in h2h. Admittedly it looks a tall order in front of the Rocket's very own partisan crowd, but so impressive was Carter in the last round the 15/8 for this match looked too tempting, plus Ronnie is playing with a new cue in this event which may be a slight inconvenience to the great man (not sure if it would be that markedly different in all honesty given the cuemaking technology at hand nowadays).
Ding unfortunately bowed out of my outright portfolio with a 6-4 defeat to John Higgins last night in a high quality encounter, certainly there was lots of encouragement to be had in defeat for him and John probably played to his most consistent standard for a couple of years in that match so disgrace there.
Our own snooker team won our re-arranged match 3-2 in midweek so we go outright fourth in the local league (in the end we were two players short through illness and unavailability and we brought in a couple of decent reserves anyway). I actually whitewashed my opponent for the first time I can recall in all my matches over many years but we did get some bad news that we had narrowly missed out on qualification for the semi finals of the cup competition despite all three teams in our group winning one game each.
The Clough Revolution hopefully continues apace tomorrow afternoon when Derby entertain Queens Park Rangers at Pride Park, given the likely atmosphere around his first actual match in the boxseat I think the wave of euphoria might carry them through to another victory and I've taken the 2.48 available on the Daq for the Rams (minus commission).
Thats all for now, onwards and upwards
Rick
Certainly taking 1/2 for Shelbourne Aston in the second round heat of the John Casey Open didnt do the coffers any good and as the dog was baulked and could only stay on into fourth place, I also lost the 5/2 outright market bet too unless there are two withdrawals come Saturday's semi finals (in which case he would take his place as one of the reserves).
The other ante post market bets at much bigger prices (Jimmy Doodlebeag and The Other Achill) both actually won their heats but went unbacked at decent odds, they still have their work cut out in the semis though as only two qualify from the three heats which is a bit cut-throat in a high quality event like this.
In Sky's Tuesday night action, as I half expected Romeo Maldini confirmed his recent lacklustre displays in finishing out of the money in the Prestige Stakes, the way he ran the last three times seemed to imply he wasn't handling the track at Hall Green too well but he had won well there prior to this event so it was all rather puzzling. Also my small stakes outsider failed to make the top three so all the outright market money drew a blank in this one.
It wasnt all doom and gloom however and on the supporting card I managed to back a couple of winners Capel Wilson and Swift Jade both at 6/4. The latter looked a bit of a rogue in that she swept up to the leaders at a hundred miles an hour (OK a slight exaggeration!) a couple of bends from home but then seemed quite content to run alongside the other prominent dog so in the end it was a headbob on the line, though luckily it went in my favour.
As I speak I've since backed three winners and a runner up since then with Gorteen Dancer (2/1), Midway Skipper (4/6) and Birchwood Sylv (3/1) obliging and Vatican Skye being rather unlucky in scrimmaging before a strong finishing second at 2/1.
Looking at the ice hockey I've still maintained an upward trend though it has only been a gradual success rate this week, I probably staked too much on one of the unsuccessful doubles I had which set me back a bit but have managed six out of nine winners overall, though all of them at odds on admittedly. In fact was up until 3am last night watching some of the online streams though not sure it was worthwhile in the end as I fnished £25 up for the night!!
As for the Masters snooker the two match bets were landed as Ding beat Murphy at odds against with a 6-4 win for the Chinese plus Ali Carter as expected had little trouble in disposing of Peter Ebdon which now means the h2h for that particular matchup is 7-0 to the man from Tiptree.
Have followed up with a smaller bet on him to beat his nemesis Ronnie O Sullivan tonight, who he trails 10-0 in h2h. Admittedly it looks a tall order in front of the Rocket's very own partisan crowd, but so impressive was Carter in the last round the 15/8 for this match looked too tempting, plus Ronnie is playing with a new cue in this event which may be a slight inconvenience to the great man (not sure if it would be that markedly different in all honesty given the cuemaking technology at hand nowadays).
Ding unfortunately bowed out of my outright portfolio with a 6-4 defeat to John Higgins last night in a high quality encounter, certainly there was lots of encouragement to be had in defeat for him and John probably played to his most consistent standard for a couple of years in that match so disgrace there.
Our own snooker team won our re-arranged match 3-2 in midweek so we go outright fourth in the local league (in the end we were two players short through illness and unavailability and we brought in a couple of decent reserves anyway). I actually whitewashed my opponent for the first time I can recall in all my matches over many years but we did get some bad news that we had narrowly missed out on qualification for the semi finals of the cup competition despite all three teams in our group winning one game each.
The Clough Revolution hopefully continues apace tomorrow afternoon when Derby entertain Queens Park Rangers at Pride Park, given the likely atmosphere around his first actual match in the boxseat I think the wave of euphoria might carry them through to another victory and I've taken the 2.48 available on the Daq for the Rams (minus commission).
Thats all for now, onwards and upwards
Rick
Friday, 9 January 2009
Success on the dogs but not on the baize
A belated entry tonight (its actually 1.30am on Saturday morning) but thanks to the wonders of technology I can date the blog as Friday so as to make out Ive beaten the deadline, perhaps I ought to wait until the winners have gone in and then post retrospectively lol, wonder if anyone would notice!!
Havent been too well today so spent most of the day in bed apart from belatedly nipping up the snooker club to put up some draw sheets, it seems whatever it is has affected most of our team as we are already looking like being three players short for next weeks match so will be ringing around tomorrow (or today!!) to try and drum up some reserves, failing that will have to cancel this match for the second time this season which probably wont go down too well with the opposing captain!!
The Championship League snooker down at Crondon Park was a bit of a damp squib from a betting viewpoint, its difficult to be dogmatic about anything over such a short format (four and five frame matches) so my new streamlined approach aimed at better value bets doesnt work so well in an event like this. The trouble is that where a firm are out of line with your viewpoint, they tend to be so on every single match for that one particular player you disagree on, and of course its unlikely he will be winning them all so its a bit of a quandary.
Anyhow I belatedly latched on to the fact that Peter Ebdon was struggling here as a late replacement for Barry Hawkins and opposed him in all three of his matches on the second day of Group 2 which brought me about level but then opposing Mark Allen in the semi final and final proved costly as he defeated both Ali Carter and Joe Perry.
Carter really does seem to have a mental block when it comes to getting over the line at the business end, he seemed to have a great chance here to reach the final but even though Allen wasnt really playing anything fantastic, Ali reserved his worst performance of the whole event for the semi final match. Perry set off with two centuries to go 2-0 up with three to play but then began to splutter and finally capsized 3-2, missing chances in all the remaining frames.
Still the vanquished may not be too worried as the longer you can stay in this competition, the more money you will make and the opposition does tend to get slightly easier on paper as the event progresses, so still plenty of time to reach the final showdown Group for which the winner will qualify for the Premier League proper.
On to the Masters and the thing to take out of this week for me was that Ding was playing exceptionally well (despite losing in both semi finals) and that Murphy and Ebdon were struggling rather badly. So being as Ding is up against Murphy in the first round, have taken some of the 6/5 and 11/10 for the Chinaman there and also gone in on the 8/13 Carter up against Peter. Seems I am not alone in those views as the odds have since contracted on both players. Have also stuck with the same players in the outrights, Ding was just over 13/1 on Betdaq and have also backed Carter each way a 18/1 even though there is a big chance he will have to beat his nemesis Ronnie in the second round.
Was considering backing Hendry for his quarter with the match practice from the Championship League behind him but he didnt show enough to get me interested, out of that quarter Robbo probably looks the most interesting but not decided yet whether to have any more interest in the outright market.
Elsewhere had a very good week on the ice hockey again so hopefully the NHL betting has turned a corner after a less than impressive start in the opening couple of months and also had an incredible run of success on the greyhounds, at one stage backing eight successive winners, and then ten out of twelve overall in the same run, including the Tote Gold Collar winner at Harolds Cross last Friday night Have Some Cop at 8/1 on the Tote.
In the ante post market, I got Droopys Carvalho through to the Coronation Cup final at Romford, though another semi finalist Dangerous Lady unfortunately withdrew taking my money with her; Shelbourne Aston returned to the track with an impressive success at Shelbourne in the John Casey Open and have since added Jemmy Doodlebeag and The Other Achill to my portfolio at big prices there. Also Romeo Maldini has reached the final of the Prestige Stakes at Hall Green despite a couple of blips with slow starts and trouble in running and he will most certainly have to get himself organised much quicker in the final itself if he's to be fulfilling his potential. As well as being on the favourite in this event I have added outsider Swift N Hasty at 33s who also qualified but needs to reach the first three places for a payout.
Got a bit bogged down with some clerical work from the last meeting at the snooker club the last few days so have once again slipped behind with the retrospective form study for the gee gees and I'm still on Boxing Day so sometimes wonder if I ever will catch up!!
Can't leave without mentioning my football club Derby County, they certainly made me sweat at The New Lawn last weekend when landing my 4/5 bet on them to beat Forest Green, but the last minute penalty did the trick after at one stage they trailed 2-0 to the non league team.
But The Rams really turned on the style on Wednesday night with a fine 1-0 win over the World Champions Manchester United in the first leg of the League Cup semi final though this time they went unbacked by me at least at 13/2 (apparently much bigger available on the exchanges).
New manager Nigel Clough was in the stands watching and it really was by some distance the best performance of the season, admittedly against a less than full strength visiting side, but it still had a very high number of internationals in their ranks, and indeed Rooney and Ronaldo were brought into the mix for the last half hour too.
Anyway all the best for now
Rick
Havent been too well today so spent most of the day in bed apart from belatedly nipping up the snooker club to put up some draw sheets, it seems whatever it is has affected most of our team as we are already looking like being three players short for next weeks match so will be ringing around tomorrow (or today!!) to try and drum up some reserves, failing that will have to cancel this match for the second time this season which probably wont go down too well with the opposing captain!!
The Championship League snooker down at Crondon Park was a bit of a damp squib from a betting viewpoint, its difficult to be dogmatic about anything over such a short format (four and five frame matches) so my new streamlined approach aimed at better value bets doesnt work so well in an event like this. The trouble is that where a firm are out of line with your viewpoint, they tend to be so on every single match for that one particular player you disagree on, and of course its unlikely he will be winning them all so its a bit of a quandary.
Anyhow I belatedly latched on to the fact that Peter Ebdon was struggling here as a late replacement for Barry Hawkins and opposed him in all three of his matches on the second day of Group 2 which brought me about level but then opposing Mark Allen in the semi final and final proved costly as he defeated both Ali Carter and Joe Perry.
Carter really does seem to have a mental block when it comes to getting over the line at the business end, he seemed to have a great chance here to reach the final but even though Allen wasnt really playing anything fantastic, Ali reserved his worst performance of the whole event for the semi final match. Perry set off with two centuries to go 2-0 up with three to play but then began to splutter and finally capsized 3-2, missing chances in all the remaining frames.
Still the vanquished may not be too worried as the longer you can stay in this competition, the more money you will make and the opposition does tend to get slightly easier on paper as the event progresses, so still plenty of time to reach the final showdown Group for which the winner will qualify for the Premier League proper.
On to the Masters and the thing to take out of this week for me was that Ding was playing exceptionally well (despite losing in both semi finals) and that Murphy and Ebdon were struggling rather badly. So being as Ding is up against Murphy in the first round, have taken some of the 6/5 and 11/10 for the Chinaman there and also gone in on the 8/13 Carter up against Peter. Seems I am not alone in those views as the odds have since contracted on both players. Have also stuck with the same players in the outrights, Ding was just over 13/1 on Betdaq and have also backed Carter each way a 18/1 even though there is a big chance he will have to beat his nemesis Ronnie in the second round.
Was considering backing Hendry for his quarter with the match practice from the Championship League behind him but he didnt show enough to get me interested, out of that quarter Robbo probably looks the most interesting but not decided yet whether to have any more interest in the outright market.
Elsewhere had a very good week on the ice hockey again so hopefully the NHL betting has turned a corner after a less than impressive start in the opening couple of months and also had an incredible run of success on the greyhounds, at one stage backing eight successive winners, and then ten out of twelve overall in the same run, including the Tote Gold Collar winner at Harolds Cross last Friday night Have Some Cop at 8/1 on the Tote.
In the ante post market, I got Droopys Carvalho through to the Coronation Cup final at Romford, though another semi finalist Dangerous Lady unfortunately withdrew taking my money with her; Shelbourne Aston returned to the track with an impressive success at Shelbourne in the John Casey Open and have since added Jemmy Doodlebeag and The Other Achill to my portfolio at big prices there. Also Romeo Maldini has reached the final of the Prestige Stakes at Hall Green despite a couple of blips with slow starts and trouble in running and he will most certainly have to get himself organised much quicker in the final itself if he's to be fulfilling his potential. As well as being on the favourite in this event I have added outsider Swift N Hasty at 33s who also qualified but needs to reach the first three places for a payout.
Got a bit bogged down with some clerical work from the last meeting at the snooker club the last few days so have once again slipped behind with the retrospective form study for the gee gees and I'm still on Boxing Day so sometimes wonder if I ever will catch up!!
Can't leave without mentioning my football club Derby County, they certainly made me sweat at The New Lawn last weekend when landing my 4/5 bet on them to beat Forest Green, but the last minute penalty did the trick after at one stage they trailed 2-0 to the non league team.
But The Rams really turned on the style on Wednesday night with a fine 1-0 win over the World Champions Manchester United in the first leg of the League Cup semi final though this time they went unbacked by me at least at 13/2 (apparently much bigger available on the exchanges).
New manager Nigel Clough was in the stands watching and it really was by some distance the best performance of the season, admittedly against a less than full strength visiting side, but it still had a very high number of internationals in their ranks, and indeed Rooney and Ronaldo were brought into the mix for the last half hour too.
Anyway all the best for now
Rick
Friday, 2 January 2009
Cup run in the balance
No snooker betting this week but our team were in action in the second and final group match in our local league cup competition, we had won the first match against last years league champions by 43pts so a win would put us through to the semi finals or perhaps even a narrow defeat would be sufficient with the best second placed team from the three groups also qualifying but that would be dependent on other results.
We had beaten our opponents 4-1 in a league fixture at home so they were bringing out a couple of big guns for this one in the shape of a couple of reportedly hundred-break men, though both had been handicapped by the league committee as giving up 28pts per frame.
The first of these players came up against our rather wayward new signing who decided after missing an early sitter that this was not going to be his day and became increasingly defeatist in his attitude, eventually losing by 52pts (despite the original 28pt buffer) and biting off his tip in true Ronnie style at the end. Rather more worrying is the fact that he has spotted Michael Holt playing in one of the other clubs he frequents and seems to be now holding him up as a role model temperamentally!
We were 70 behind by the time I came to play the other hundred break man but one thing I have managed to learn over the years is that if you dont leave them on they cant pot them and actually played my best team game of the season, at one stage leading 91-2 with just the colours left but unfortunately I didnt pot any further balls and that ended up being crucial as my winning margin was cut to 62.
With the opposition holding an eight point lead, their fourth man won by three and our last man won by one (he needed pink and black to take us through) but at least it gives us an outside chance of progressing which we wouldnt really have expected after the original draw.
On the betting front, with the lack of opportunities I returned to the ice hockey markets and actually enjoyed a great run with six winners out of seven so hope that it can continue as I had started the NHL season in less than impressive style when some of last years trends didnt seem to be carrying forward this time around. The face off areas have been moved this season in certain circumstances so its probably this factor that has caused a bit of a changearound in retrospect.
I also backed Villa to win at Hull in midweek at evens and sat through a dull as dishwater match, much the same as many at Derby have been over the last couple of years it has to be said but eventually the result was right for me when Ashley Young's cross was deflected into his own net by one of the home defenders. I was cursing a bit when ref Mr Bennett pointed to the spot for a Hull penalty though with about three seconds left I made it but after consulting with a linesman the decision was rightly overturned.
I'm fearing the worst for my team Derby tomorrow at Forest Green to be honest, as I said last week have got tickets for the match and sounds like it will go ahead with the pitch being covered for the last few days. However, after consulting the prices, 4/5 for us to win in 90 mins looked too tempting to resist, some of the compilers had Villa this very price against Hull for a match between two teams in the same league so with ourselves three tiers above the opposition tomorrow, had to give it a bash more in hope than judgement though!!
Paul Jewell has resigned and been replaced by his assistant Chris Hutchings for the next two games, his track record hasnt been so great up to now, plus we have a fair few injuries and suspensions to cope with so everything is in place for a tough match down there with the opposition battling for everything on an icy pitch.
Have also increased my bankroll on the greyhounds with a few of my usual favourites, again a fair few have been odds on but they have mostly been class animals up against also rans and in the main the majority have come out on top.
The Prestige Stakes for stayers starts tonight at Hall Green with the classy Romeo Maldini the hot favourite at 6/4 in the ante post lists. I'll probably have some of that even at what appear prohibitive odds at first glance as it would be a major shock if he doesnt go very close indeed as long as he stays out of trouble. In fact might concentrate mainly on the staying division for bets as if your dog does get baulked at some stage, there is often still time for it to get going unlike some of the races over the shorter distances.
Shelbourne Aston the Irish Derby winner returns after a bit of a lay off in the John Casey Open at Shelbourne on Saturday night and it looks a high class entry with the likes of fellow Derby finalists Headleys Bridge, Tyrur Laurel as well as the promising bitch Kildallon Maid in the mix.
Plus only a week behind with the horse racing form now (regular readers will know I have been straining every sinew to catch up, well almost anyway). Should mention I drew a blank in the Arima Kinen Grade 1 Japanese race with my bets last weekend, probably the one lowlight of the week.
In the end the filly Daiwa Scarlet made all to justify favouritism but had put a line through her due to her outside pitch, seems she got a fairly easy lead though and spent most of the race on the inside rail where she most likes to be, in front. My nearest charge was the Japan Cup winner Screen Hero who gave chase in second but seemed to run out of gas and faded into fourth place while course specialist Matsurida Gogh was pushed very wide around the final turn and weakened out of contention.
Anyway better get the map out for Nailsworth!!
All the best for now
Rick
We had beaten our opponents 4-1 in a league fixture at home so they were bringing out a couple of big guns for this one in the shape of a couple of reportedly hundred-break men, though both had been handicapped by the league committee as giving up 28pts per frame.
The first of these players came up against our rather wayward new signing who decided after missing an early sitter that this was not going to be his day and became increasingly defeatist in his attitude, eventually losing by 52pts (despite the original 28pt buffer) and biting off his tip in true Ronnie style at the end. Rather more worrying is the fact that he has spotted Michael Holt playing in one of the other clubs he frequents and seems to be now holding him up as a role model temperamentally!
We were 70 behind by the time I came to play the other hundred break man but one thing I have managed to learn over the years is that if you dont leave them on they cant pot them and actually played my best team game of the season, at one stage leading 91-2 with just the colours left but unfortunately I didnt pot any further balls and that ended up being crucial as my winning margin was cut to 62.
With the opposition holding an eight point lead, their fourth man won by three and our last man won by one (he needed pink and black to take us through) but at least it gives us an outside chance of progressing which we wouldnt really have expected after the original draw.
On the betting front, with the lack of opportunities I returned to the ice hockey markets and actually enjoyed a great run with six winners out of seven so hope that it can continue as I had started the NHL season in less than impressive style when some of last years trends didnt seem to be carrying forward this time around. The face off areas have been moved this season in certain circumstances so its probably this factor that has caused a bit of a changearound in retrospect.
I also backed Villa to win at Hull in midweek at evens and sat through a dull as dishwater match, much the same as many at Derby have been over the last couple of years it has to be said but eventually the result was right for me when Ashley Young's cross was deflected into his own net by one of the home defenders. I was cursing a bit when ref Mr Bennett pointed to the spot for a Hull penalty though with about three seconds left I made it but after consulting with a linesman the decision was rightly overturned.
I'm fearing the worst for my team Derby tomorrow at Forest Green to be honest, as I said last week have got tickets for the match and sounds like it will go ahead with the pitch being covered for the last few days. However, after consulting the prices, 4/5 for us to win in 90 mins looked too tempting to resist, some of the compilers had Villa this very price against Hull for a match between two teams in the same league so with ourselves three tiers above the opposition tomorrow, had to give it a bash more in hope than judgement though!!
Paul Jewell has resigned and been replaced by his assistant Chris Hutchings for the next two games, his track record hasnt been so great up to now, plus we have a fair few injuries and suspensions to cope with so everything is in place for a tough match down there with the opposition battling for everything on an icy pitch.
Have also increased my bankroll on the greyhounds with a few of my usual favourites, again a fair few have been odds on but they have mostly been class animals up against also rans and in the main the majority have come out on top.
The Prestige Stakes for stayers starts tonight at Hall Green with the classy Romeo Maldini the hot favourite at 6/4 in the ante post lists. I'll probably have some of that even at what appear prohibitive odds at first glance as it would be a major shock if he doesnt go very close indeed as long as he stays out of trouble. In fact might concentrate mainly on the staying division for bets as if your dog does get baulked at some stage, there is often still time for it to get going unlike some of the races over the shorter distances.
Shelbourne Aston the Irish Derby winner returns after a bit of a lay off in the John Casey Open at Shelbourne on Saturday night and it looks a high class entry with the likes of fellow Derby finalists Headleys Bridge, Tyrur Laurel as well as the promising bitch Kildallon Maid in the mix.
Plus only a week behind with the horse racing form now (regular readers will know I have been straining every sinew to catch up, well almost anyway). Should mention I drew a blank in the Arima Kinen Grade 1 Japanese race with my bets last weekend, probably the one lowlight of the week.
In the end the filly Daiwa Scarlet made all to justify favouritism but had put a line through her due to her outside pitch, seems she got a fairly easy lead though and spent most of the race on the inside rail where she most likes to be, in front. My nearest charge was the Japan Cup winner Screen Hero who gave chase in second but seemed to run out of gas and faded into fourth place while course specialist Matsurida Gogh was pushed very wide around the final turn and weakened out of contention.
Anyway better get the map out for Nailsworth!!
All the best for now
Rick
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