Just back from a trip to Doncaster to see the Rams lose their first league match in five outings this evening at the Keepmoat Stadium, a bit of a disappointing performance after some great showings in recent weeks but maybe not a total surprise as our main playmaker Kris Commons was out injured with a calf strain. With the only like for like replacement in the hole just behind the forward line, Giles Barnes, currently on loan at Fulham it was hard to see who was going to come up with the magic to keep us firing on all cylinders and so it proved, though goalkeeper Stephen Bywater will probably feel he should have had the home team's winning goal on reflection.
So it was double misery on the sporting front for me this week as our snooker team slumped to a third successive defeat in the local league, this time 4-1 with myself having a bit of a nightmare too. It was one of those frames where everything that could go wrong did, and everything my opponent came up with turned into a bed of roses, though in fairness the way I was playing I may not have won anyhow even if Lady Luck had dealt me a better hand. One bright spark was that our new recruit knocked in a nice 31 break to banish memories of his premature concession the week before, the acid test now is how his temperament holds up the next time he's twenty behind.
On the betting front I came out of the Welsh Open snooker nicely ahead and the early stages of the World Championship qualifiers have started off OK with wins for Tony Knowles (2/7) against Ali Bassiri, Wayne Cooper (3/1) against Scott Mackenzie and Daniel Wells (6/4) against Li Hang, the latter two on final frame shootouts, which I dont seem to have had the best of luck in this season so nice to see it changing at least for the time being.
Stephen Craigie after being well in contention at the interval, couldnt keep it going against Lee Spick however and was the first loser. Robert Stephen and David Grace, two of my other picks at the odds, could soon be joining him as they will need to claw back from very difficult positions tomorrow.
I've also got Jamie Jones and Kuldesh Johal in the match odds tomorrow both at 6/4 starting out against Atthasit Mahitti and Jin Long respectively. Hoping to get up to the Institute of Sport at Sheffield at some stage tomorrow to see some of the action, as indeed I will be doing next week for the final round of matches before the Crucible itself.
Nice to see old Tony Knowles as a non tour qualifier upsetting the odds with a fine 10-9 win over Stefan Mazrocis, there was no fluke in the win either as apart from a couple of frames near the end when the Dutch-Latvian found his breakbuilding touch, the old stager had mostly been outscoring him fairly convincingly.
I've also had one last crack at trying to break the "to qualify for the last 32" market - at least this time there were a selection of bookies pricing this up instead of just one so maybe there was a bit more value flying about though whether I have found it is another matter.
Picked eight in the end - in price order Judd Trump 11/10 (seems to just have Lee to beat), Ricky Walden 11/8 (looks between him and Hamilton), Michael Holt 13/8 (might have a bit too much for Dominic Dale), Gerard Greene 7/4 (decent odds against out of form Ken, though the latter in Championship League action this week, keep em peeled), Andrew Higginson 2/1 (must have a chance against the likes of Judge), Barry Pinches 4/1 (found a bit of form recently after a poor start to the year, has Gunnell and S Davis to beat), John Parrott 4/1 (Swail maybe overrated by the oddsmakers after he reached the Welsh final, his breakbuilding was still modest) and Andy Hicks 7/1 (maybe value with some books keeping Jimmy tight in anticipation of a few of his fans bets). Of course there are other players I havent mentioned who could also upset the applecart for any of those above but just listing who I thought were the main protagonists.
The Championship League also reconvenes on Monday at Crondon Park with Groups 5 and 6 being played off this week - new arrivals this time are Matthew Stevens, Mark King and Ken Doherty who come in to join the remaining players from the last round John Higgins, Jamie Cope, Mark Williams and Barry Hawkins.
After saying I wasnt going to get involved until the semi finals, I'll probably still take the opportunity to price up the league matches after all, have done a bit of re-thinking and hopefully might be able to tweak the betting strategy to become more successful in this. Last year I did OK in it but went into it in a bit of a half hearted way this season from a betting angle and therefore no surprise the bookies have come out on top so far. Then again it all depends on whether the price is right!
There was an embarrassing moment on the greyhounds last weekend, if you recall I had spent most of the week complaining about a reserve carrying my money against my wishes when it replaced my original selection in a race at Coventry. Eventually I succeeded in getting my stake refunded yet this week the same reserve Kenpo Star was actually going head to head with my original selection Swift Ninja again at the same track.
Needless to say the reserve finished in front of it which maybe shows I had the better deal last week after all if only I'd seen it, though in fairness Ninja is a dog that has to lead as he seems to possess all the trackcraft of an elephant on ice when he has to run in and around other dogs.
The Golden Jacket at Crayford (the final of which is tomorrow) also only spawned one qualifier for me in Lorrys Options with the other three who were all drawn in the same heat biting the dust with ante post favourite Midway Skipper who had no luck in running being one of them.
In the supporting card, I've also given a chance to Special Liberty who showed a decent turn of foot when winnning on one of the Sky cards recently and also Nebuchadnezzar who I backed for the Springbok but this longer trip should be more suitable on reflection, he also has the 6 box this time and as he usually goes right, this at least might have the effect of keeping him on a straighter route.
Unluckiest loser of the weekend for me was undoubtedly Barefoot Bryan in the Joe Dunne Memorial puppies final, he looked all set to take the prize when as a renowned strong fininsher he was a length behind leader Oakfront O Seven at the final bend and surely odds of 1/4 would have been looking generous at the time. However to my disbelief both dogs took the exact same line from the bend and my selection ran right up the backside of the leader, losing all momentum until it was too late when he rallied strongly but to no avail.
Another big event in Ireland starts tomorrow with the Tote Gold Cup heats, I've picked out four in the ante post market, Slip The Lark (8/1), Ballymac Bondi (25/1), Swords Prince (33/1) and Priceless Johnno (66/1 e/w).
I've also had a couple of small dabbles on the Derby, I missed best price on both but wanted to see the connections confirm that the Blue Riband event was in their plans before parting with any cash, so once again I've been tempted by the aforementioned Slip The Lark who doesnt know how to run a bad race and also a dog I saw in the flesh at Nottingham last week annhiliating his field, Head ItOn Ellis, who admittedly is a bit inexperienced but has plenty of talent. These were available at 50s and 100s the day before I backed them but the confirmation of their plans sent the prices tumbling before I could get on but 40s and 66s is still something to get excited about if they are in contention at the business end. Suppose at this stage of proceedings though you're just happy if they actually make the race.
Finally in the aussie rules football I lost Richmond Tigers from my NAB Cup outright picks when they were beaten by Collingwood Magpies this weekend, I had half anticipated this though by adding Essendon Bombers at 7/1 who seemed to face a slightly preferable match with Brisbane Lions, though they did ultimately make quite hard work of it, only winning by two points at the end. A plus for Essendon is that they had lots and lots of injuries last year so they are almost certainly better than what they could manage last time around , they too must face Collingwood now so hoping they can fare better than the Tigers in that respect.
All the best for now
Rick
Friday, 27 February 2009
Friday, 20 February 2009
25/1 Hamilton & 20/1 Corrig boost coffers
An eventful week to say the least. Most of my time has been spent fighting the loss of my stake on a dog race at Coventry last Sunday night when my intended bet on the hot favourite Swift Ninja was transferred to rank outsider Kenpo Star who came in as reserve after my initial selection was withdrawn.
Having originally thought my money was safe as is usually the case if the dogs name appears on your betting slip, I contacted the firms customer service rep and she confirmed I would be OK. Having read their small print just prior to the off though I wasnt so sure and emailed them to say I definitely didnt want this bet win or lose so at least they had it in writing.
The next morning of course they followed their rule book and did an about turn saying it was settled as a loser, saying I had contacted them too late, but the fact remained this was a very deceptive way of operating with the dogs name appearing on the betting slip rather than the trap number, by which method they were settling the wager.
Eventually after some wrangling, and having taken some fellow forumites advice and contacted IBAS and Matt Chapman himself of Atthreraces fame, both parties managed to come to the agreement that I would be reimbursed the full amount having initially been offered a £20 free bet.
So a sensible conclusion but not sure why dog punters should be railroaded into backing these reserve dogs anyhow, to my knowledge it doesnt happen in any other sport. For instance in snooker how would you feel if your money was down on Ronnie O Sullivan only to find that Hugh Abernethy (no disrespect to the Scot) had taken his place at a moments notice.
The replacement dog actually ran quite well, finishing a close up fourth, but why on earth should I be forced to back something I knew nothing whatsoever about, at least you should get the option to say "no reserve" which is indeed the most common scenario with the majority of firms.
The other dog bets, while mixed have still seen an overall profit on the week. Corrig Vieri of course landed the Swindon Arc on Thursday which meant a successful 20/1 ante post bet even though my other finalist Shaneboy Luke at the head of the market could only trail in last of the six runners after a slow start.
I also backed both Magna Dave and Killough Belles at 6/1 and 8/1 respectively in the Gorton Cup final the same night at Belle Vue but they were both thwarted in a three way photo by the favourite Royal Warrior who just held on by a diminishing neck and a head.
I was looking forward to the Crayford Golden Jacket staying event heats on Monday having had a few ante post picks but having checked the sponsor Ladbrokes' online site it seemed they were not showing them on there. That meant they would probably more than likely be screening them in their shops on SIS and I seemed to recall they were the track bookmakers at Nottingham greyhound stadium who were also racing that night.
However, after making the hour long trip I found to my chagrin it was William Hill, so my memory must be playing tricks on me, which meant I missed all the Crayford action as they did not have it on their menu, then of course when I got back home I found out Ladbrokes had screened it on their website all along!!
At least my four outright picks made it through to the semi finals but with three of them drawn in the same heat and only two possible qualification places, it still didnt all work out to plan. Midway Skipper the ante post favourite who is unbeaten at the track must take on my other picks Capel Wilson and Greedy Bridie while Lorrys Options is the other representative.
At least I saw a decent prospect on the track at Nottingham with Head Iton Ellis winning in fine style, admittedly a 1/3 shot on the night, but was visually very impressive and paid a big compliment to Bandicoot Tipoki who has beaten it twice in the previous three meetings between the puppies.
Over in Ireland Barefoot Bryan was the only ante post to make it through to tomorrows Joe Dunne final at Shelbourne having been backed at 6/1 and couldnt resist going in again at 2s after what was an eye catching run in the semi final, whilst only finishing third, it was highly creditable after meeting all kinds of trouble. Just hope he can avoid that fate this time around.
The gaelic football bets didnt start off too well last weekend with odds on shots Armagh and Meath both letting me down, the former had two of their better players carded when holding a five point lead and the loss of these seemed too much to handle as Laois came back to land the spoils. Derry did oblige on the Sunday though and after some pondering also decided to risk outsiders Dublin at home to a weakened Galway team in the hurling which bore fruit with a 7/2 winner.
Also had a nice bet on my own team Derby to see off Blackpool in the midweek football, and after being made to fight hard for most of the match, the tide turned in their favour near the end with some classy goals in a 4-1 victory. Off to Forest again tomorrow morning for the big re-match following our 3-2 win at the City Ground in the FA Cup only a couple of weeks ago.
The aussie rules teams are continuing to play out the NAB Cup pre season tournament and I managed to get Richmond (12/1) through to the next round to play Collingwood but North Melbourne were beaten today at Carlton.
On to the snooker and the Welsh Open and the coffers received a major boost today with Anthony Hamilton winning the first quarter at 25/1, thanks to a hard fought victory over hot favourite Mark Selby this evening.
That was a very welcome winner, as the Championship League event run by Matchroom just prior to this hadnt really gone to plan but this one is now looking much better.
As I speak Neil Robertson is also heading for the semi final with a comfortable win over Marco Fu and at 25/1 in the ante post market there hopefully might be another payout there.
Have had a bit of a saver on Ali Carter at 5/4 also just now as he looks the most likely other contender with outsiders Hamilton and Joe Swail making up the semi finalists.
In fact along with a few others almost backed Carter too at the start of the event at around 16s but in the end preferred to risk Graeme Dott at bigger odds from that section.
The match betting has been pretty even steven, have had some good winners like Fu to beat O Sullivan at nearly 3/1 on the exchange, Gould to beat Hendry at 21/10 and Judge to beat Day at 2/1 but the main profits will be coming from the quarter and/or outright markets.
Our own snooker team lost our second match in a row this week with a 3-2 defeat to another mid table side. Our wayward new signing set the tone for the night by reverting to type and rather imploding in the first frame of the evening, he almost won the award for most ridiculous concession in the history of the league when he started unscrewing his cue when only 19 behind with 51 on the table!! After being encouraged to continue, he then just smashed the balls around a few more times leaving easy pots before once again offering his hand when only requiring one snooker on the colours. I told him I want a bit more effort next week or else!!
Anyway must get off to bed as its offically Saturday!!
See you soon
Rick
Having originally thought my money was safe as is usually the case if the dogs name appears on your betting slip, I contacted the firms customer service rep and she confirmed I would be OK. Having read their small print just prior to the off though I wasnt so sure and emailed them to say I definitely didnt want this bet win or lose so at least they had it in writing.
The next morning of course they followed their rule book and did an about turn saying it was settled as a loser, saying I had contacted them too late, but the fact remained this was a very deceptive way of operating with the dogs name appearing on the betting slip rather than the trap number, by which method they were settling the wager.
Eventually after some wrangling, and having taken some fellow forumites advice and contacted IBAS and Matt Chapman himself of Atthreraces fame, both parties managed to come to the agreement that I would be reimbursed the full amount having initially been offered a £20 free bet.
So a sensible conclusion but not sure why dog punters should be railroaded into backing these reserve dogs anyhow, to my knowledge it doesnt happen in any other sport. For instance in snooker how would you feel if your money was down on Ronnie O Sullivan only to find that Hugh Abernethy (no disrespect to the Scot) had taken his place at a moments notice.
The replacement dog actually ran quite well, finishing a close up fourth, but why on earth should I be forced to back something I knew nothing whatsoever about, at least you should get the option to say "no reserve" which is indeed the most common scenario with the majority of firms.
The other dog bets, while mixed have still seen an overall profit on the week. Corrig Vieri of course landed the Swindon Arc on Thursday which meant a successful 20/1 ante post bet even though my other finalist Shaneboy Luke at the head of the market could only trail in last of the six runners after a slow start.
I also backed both Magna Dave and Killough Belles at 6/1 and 8/1 respectively in the Gorton Cup final the same night at Belle Vue but they were both thwarted in a three way photo by the favourite Royal Warrior who just held on by a diminishing neck and a head.
I was looking forward to the Crayford Golden Jacket staying event heats on Monday having had a few ante post picks but having checked the sponsor Ladbrokes' online site it seemed they were not showing them on there. That meant they would probably more than likely be screening them in their shops on SIS and I seemed to recall they were the track bookmakers at Nottingham greyhound stadium who were also racing that night.
However, after making the hour long trip I found to my chagrin it was William Hill, so my memory must be playing tricks on me, which meant I missed all the Crayford action as they did not have it on their menu, then of course when I got back home I found out Ladbrokes had screened it on their website all along!!
At least my four outright picks made it through to the semi finals but with three of them drawn in the same heat and only two possible qualification places, it still didnt all work out to plan. Midway Skipper the ante post favourite who is unbeaten at the track must take on my other picks Capel Wilson and Greedy Bridie while Lorrys Options is the other representative.
At least I saw a decent prospect on the track at Nottingham with Head Iton Ellis winning in fine style, admittedly a 1/3 shot on the night, but was visually very impressive and paid a big compliment to Bandicoot Tipoki who has beaten it twice in the previous three meetings between the puppies.
Over in Ireland Barefoot Bryan was the only ante post to make it through to tomorrows Joe Dunne final at Shelbourne having been backed at 6/1 and couldnt resist going in again at 2s after what was an eye catching run in the semi final, whilst only finishing third, it was highly creditable after meeting all kinds of trouble. Just hope he can avoid that fate this time around.
The gaelic football bets didnt start off too well last weekend with odds on shots Armagh and Meath both letting me down, the former had two of their better players carded when holding a five point lead and the loss of these seemed too much to handle as Laois came back to land the spoils. Derry did oblige on the Sunday though and after some pondering also decided to risk outsiders Dublin at home to a weakened Galway team in the hurling which bore fruit with a 7/2 winner.
Also had a nice bet on my own team Derby to see off Blackpool in the midweek football, and after being made to fight hard for most of the match, the tide turned in their favour near the end with some classy goals in a 4-1 victory. Off to Forest again tomorrow morning for the big re-match following our 3-2 win at the City Ground in the FA Cup only a couple of weeks ago.
The aussie rules teams are continuing to play out the NAB Cup pre season tournament and I managed to get Richmond (12/1) through to the next round to play Collingwood but North Melbourne were beaten today at Carlton.
On to the snooker and the Welsh Open and the coffers received a major boost today with Anthony Hamilton winning the first quarter at 25/1, thanks to a hard fought victory over hot favourite Mark Selby this evening.
That was a very welcome winner, as the Championship League event run by Matchroom just prior to this hadnt really gone to plan but this one is now looking much better.
As I speak Neil Robertson is also heading for the semi final with a comfortable win over Marco Fu and at 25/1 in the ante post market there hopefully might be another payout there.
Have had a bit of a saver on Ali Carter at 5/4 also just now as he looks the most likely other contender with outsiders Hamilton and Joe Swail making up the semi finalists.
In fact along with a few others almost backed Carter too at the start of the event at around 16s but in the end preferred to risk Graeme Dott at bigger odds from that section.
The match betting has been pretty even steven, have had some good winners like Fu to beat O Sullivan at nearly 3/1 on the exchange, Gould to beat Hendry at 21/10 and Judge to beat Day at 2/1 but the main profits will be coming from the quarter and/or outright markets.
Our own snooker team lost our second match in a row this week with a 3-2 defeat to another mid table side. Our wayward new signing set the tone for the night by reverting to type and rather imploding in the first frame of the evening, he almost won the award for most ridiculous concession in the history of the league when he started unscrewing his cue when only 19 behind with 51 on the table!! After being encouraged to continue, he then just smashed the balls around a few more times leaving easy pots before once again offering his hand when only requiring one snooker on the colours. I told him I want a bit more effort next week or else!!
Anyway must get off to bed as its offically Saturday!!
See you soon
Rick
Friday, 13 February 2009
Casper lands the 66/1 each way punt
There was good and bad news in the final of the Springbok greyhound novice hurdle at Wimbledon on Tuesday night. My ante post picks seemed to have differing chances having reached this stage, with my original 11/2 shot Nebuchadnezzar now quoted at 4/5 and Deanridge Casper initially at 66/1 still the outsider of the field but now into 16/1.
Unfortunately the odds on favourite never fired at all being slowly away and then swerving right from the start and found himself in amongst some of the other dogs which he didnt seem to like, finishing a never dangerous fourth. There was some joy though as Casper came away in second place and although he stumbled after one of the hurdles losing some momentum which resulted in him being overtaken for that position, he still finished a creditable third to bring home the each way money at a quarter of the odds. The winner Bomber Bailey put up by far his best performance of the event with the quickest time of all the heats so there can be no complaints about the justification of the result on the night.
In the delayed Arc heats at Swindon, both my picks Shaneboy Luke and Corrig Vieri made it through to the semi finals, the former finding trouble in running but still managing to do enough for third place while the latter (who I also backed individually at 8/11) won comfortably in a heat weakened by two withdrawals.
Over in Ireland at Shelbourne Park, the John Dunne Memorial saw the loss of ante post favourite Faypoint Man from the event after he was badly impeded but my other picks - Barefoot Bryan, Mardocs Foster and Skywalker Queen - all sailed through convincingly with successes on the night in their individual heats. They do battle again this Saturday in the semi finals.
I also had a couple of other winners on Wimbledon's Sky card on Tuesday in the supporting races with Lorrys Options obliging at 11/4 and the ever reliable Flying Winner doing what she does best at 8/15.
So all things considered another excellent week on the dogs, just wish the same could be said for the snooker.
Unfortunately I rather half heartedly got involved in Barry Hearn's event the Championship League which this week held Groups 3 and 4 which act as feeders for the Premier League proper. Having priced up the matches, I found very few differing odds from the layers but I decided to take on a couple of players who had been struggling in the qualifying matches lately, Barry Hawkins and Stuart Bingham. However as it happens they both performed very well, Hawkins qualifying for the semi finals of both Groups while Bingham went one step better and actually won Group 4 as the rank outsider beforehand priced at 9/1, beating John Higgins in the final. Higgins himself was awful in the opening group but then suddenly transformed overnight into the player we know he can be while others like Neil Robertson were very inconsistent, losing eight frames in a row at one stage then coming back to win 4-0 in his next match.
All in all I think its safe to say it was pretty much a bookies benefit, perhaps laying is the way to go but that means returning to Betfair, something which I'm reluctant to do until they get their house in order. So instead think I'll explore other avenues and perhaps only join the Championship League markets at the semi final stages in the future when its a straight best of five shootout. I did notice the totally out of sorts Ken Doherty is in the next group so it is tempting to go against him from the start but judging by the events of this week he'll probably win it lol.
At least the Welsh Open is on the horizon next week and the home players have done exceptionally well in qualifying with almost a full complement - Ian Preece and Paul Davies battled through to reach the first round proper while the likes of Mark Williams, Matthew Stevens and Dominic Dale - now commuting from Austria - have all had their last qualifiers held over to the venue just in case.
On to the outright market and as usual I'll be picking one from each quarter. The first quarter looks stronger at the top end with the likes of Selby, Perry and Williams in the mix. Therefore I'll look to the bottom of that section and as both Peter Ebdon (especially) and Ryan Day have been struggling a bit in the last few events I'll risk a few quid on both Anthony Hamilton (25/1) and Michael Judge (28/1) to win the first quarter, as if they both won they would play each other in round two in a match that could go either way for a quarter final place. Of the two, mainly because he was trading at bigger odds at the time, have plumped for Judge in the outright market with an each way bet at 200/1 (now into 150s), ever the optimist!!
In section two most peoples eyes will be drawn towards Ali Carter but I feel I've given him enough chances of late, he's flattered to deceive for most of his career and he rather lost the plot at the business end of both the UK and the Masters when my money was down. Therefore I'll take Graeme Dott each way at 66/1 to try to get his career back on track, at least he is a proven winner in the past unlike Carter and did show a bit of the old form in the recent Masters match which he lost narrowly to Stephen Maguire. He starts out against Mike Dunn before maybe taking on Carter in round two, if the latter can beat old stager Jimmy White in his opener.
Shaun Murphy is probably the other one to consider from this section, but although he looks to have a good draw, his form still didnt seem totally convincing in the UK even though he won it and he looks short enough in the betting for me. Plus his opening opponent Barry Pinches seems to have at last found some form this season with good wins over Judd Trump and Jamie Cope in qualifying.
In quarter three Maguire and Ding are on a collision course towards the top end of that section so again dropping down below Mark Allen at 25/1 catches the eye, starting off against Joe Swail which he ought to have a fair chance of coming through before taking on either Stephen Hendry or Martin Gould, another one he shouldnt be frightened off nowadays.
And finally into the fourth quarter Ronnie O Sullivan should see off Steve Davis but could then face another grinding type of opponent in either Fergal O Brien or Marco Fu so maybe best to give him a swerve at the odds and decided to give Neil Robertson a bash at 25/1. He comes up against Jamie Burnett first, who played exceptionally well in qualifying for this but doesnt usually follow it up nowadays in the main venues.
Anyhow thats the prognosis and at least they're decent prices so hopefully they won't all bomb out at the first hurdle!
In the match betting have stuck mainly with odds against chances even though there look to be some obvious short ones, in a first to five given the inconsistency of some of the players this season I wouldnt have total faith in them all doing the business.
Amongst those I've played are Hicks 11/5, Gould 21/10, Judge 2/1, Hamilton 6/5, O Brien 7/4 and Harold evens along with a double of Allen and Williams on the opening day paying 6/5ish.
Coverage is on BBC Wales and Eurosport.
Finally theres a full programme of the National League in the gaelic football circles as long as the weather doesnt intervene. Armagh opened up their campaign with a fine away win at Wexford a fortnight ago and taken the 2/5 for them to see off Laois who disappointed against Kildare.
Also like Derry at 4/9 to follow up their success over Mayo with a win over Westmeath and will risk Meath who didnt show alot in a heavy loss to Cork but this looks a more realistic proposition against Fermanagh and the 8/11 odds were too tempting to resist.
Thats all for now,
See you soon Rick
Unfortunately the odds on favourite never fired at all being slowly away and then swerving right from the start and found himself in amongst some of the other dogs which he didnt seem to like, finishing a never dangerous fourth. There was some joy though as Casper came away in second place and although he stumbled after one of the hurdles losing some momentum which resulted in him being overtaken for that position, he still finished a creditable third to bring home the each way money at a quarter of the odds. The winner Bomber Bailey put up by far his best performance of the event with the quickest time of all the heats so there can be no complaints about the justification of the result on the night.
In the delayed Arc heats at Swindon, both my picks Shaneboy Luke and Corrig Vieri made it through to the semi finals, the former finding trouble in running but still managing to do enough for third place while the latter (who I also backed individually at 8/11) won comfortably in a heat weakened by two withdrawals.
Over in Ireland at Shelbourne Park, the John Dunne Memorial saw the loss of ante post favourite Faypoint Man from the event after he was badly impeded but my other picks - Barefoot Bryan, Mardocs Foster and Skywalker Queen - all sailed through convincingly with successes on the night in their individual heats. They do battle again this Saturday in the semi finals.
I also had a couple of other winners on Wimbledon's Sky card on Tuesday in the supporting races with Lorrys Options obliging at 11/4 and the ever reliable Flying Winner doing what she does best at 8/15.
So all things considered another excellent week on the dogs, just wish the same could be said for the snooker.
Unfortunately I rather half heartedly got involved in Barry Hearn's event the Championship League which this week held Groups 3 and 4 which act as feeders for the Premier League proper. Having priced up the matches, I found very few differing odds from the layers but I decided to take on a couple of players who had been struggling in the qualifying matches lately, Barry Hawkins and Stuart Bingham. However as it happens they both performed very well, Hawkins qualifying for the semi finals of both Groups while Bingham went one step better and actually won Group 4 as the rank outsider beforehand priced at 9/1, beating John Higgins in the final. Higgins himself was awful in the opening group but then suddenly transformed overnight into the player we know he can be while others like Neil Robertson were very inconsistent, losing eight frames in a row at one stage then coming back to win 4-0 in his next match.
All in all I think its safe to say it was pretty much a bookies benefit, perhaps laying is the way to go but that means returning to Betfair, something which I'm reluctant to do until they get their house in order. So instead think I'll explore other avenues and perhaps only join the Championship League markets at the semi final stages in the future when its a straight best of five shootout. I did notice the totally out of sorts Ken Doherty is in the next group so it is tempting to go against him from the start but judging by the events of this week he'll probably win it lol.
At least the Welsh Open is on the horizon next week and the home players have done exceptionally well in qualifying with almost a full complement - Ian Preece and Paul Davies battled through to reach the first round proper while the likes of Mark Williams, Matthew Stevens and Dominic Dale - now commuting from Austria - have all had their last qualifiers held over to the venue just in case.
On to the outright market and as usual I'll be picking one from each quarter. The first quarter looks stronger at the top end with the likes of Selby, Perry and Williams in the mix. Therefore I'll look to the bottom of that section and as both Peter Ebdon (especially) and Ryan Day have been struggling a bit in the last few events I'll risk a few quid on both Anthony Hamilton (25/1) and Michael Judge (28/1) to win the first quarter, as if they both won they would play each other in round two in a match that could go either way for a quarter final place. Of the two, mainly because he was trading at bigger odds at the time, have plumped for Judge in the outright market with an each way bet at 200/1 (now into 150s), ever the optimist!!
In section two most peoples eyes will be drawn towards Ali Carter but I feel I've given him enough chances of late, he's flattered to deceive for most of his career and he rather lost the plot at the business end of both the UK and the Masters when my money was down. Therefore I'll take Graeme Dott each way at 66/1 to try to get his career back on track, at least he is a proven winner in the past unlike Carter and did show a bit of the old form in the recent Masters match which he lost narrowly to Stephen Maguire. He starts out against Mike Dunn before maybe taking on Carter in round two, if the latter can beat old stager Jimmy White in his opener.
Shaun Murphy is probably the other one to consider from this section, but although he looks to have a good draw, his form still didnt seem totally convincing in the UK even though he won it and he looks short enough in the betting for me. Plus his opening opponent Barry Pinches seems to have at last found some form this season with good wins over Judd Trump and Jamie Cope in qualifying.
In quarter three Maguire and Ding are on a collision course towards the top end of that section so again dropping down below Mark Allen at 25/1 catches the eye, starting off against Joe Swail which he ought to have a fair chance of coming through before taking on either Stephen Hendry or Martin Gould, another one he shouldnt be frightened off nowadays.
And finally into the fourth quarter Ronnie O Sullivan should see off Steve Davis but could then face another grinding type of opponent in either Fergal O Brien or Marco Fu so maybe best to give him a swerve at the odds and decided to give Neil Robertson a bash at 25/1. He comes up against Jamie Burnett first, who played exceptionally well in qualifying for this but doesnt usually follow it up nowadays in the main venues.
Anyhow thats the prognosis and at least they're decent prices so hopefully they won't all bomb out at the first hurdle!
In the match betting have stuck mainly with odds against chances even though there look to be some obvious short ones, in a first to five given the inconsistency of some of the players this season I wouldnt have total faith in them all doing the business.
Amongst those I've played are Hicks 11/5, Gould 21/10, Judge 2/1, Hamilton 6/5, O Brien 7/4 and Harold evens along with a double of Allen and Williams on the opening day paying 6/5ish.
Coverage is on BBC Wales and Eurosport.
Finally theres a full programme of the National League in the gaelic football circles as long as the weather doesnt intervene. Armagh opened up their campaign with a fine away win at Wexford a fortnight ago and taken the 2/5 for them to see off Laois who disappointed against Kildare.
Also like Derry at 4/9 to follow up their success over Mayo with a win over Westmeath and will risk Meath who didnt show alot in a heavy loss to Cork but this looks a more realistic proposition against Fermanagh and the 8/11 odds were too tempting to resist.
Thats all for now,
See you soon Rick
Friday, 6 February 2009
Gould-en ending to Welsh Open qualifiers
Well it seems a long time since I last did the blog but its only a week, had plenty of ups and downs in that time that it seems a lifetime!!
The main stresses came about via the recent Welsh Open snooker qualifiers which were held in Prestatyn. With three books pricing them up for the most part, there were plenty of opportunities but after making rather a monumental blunder half way through I just about came out of it intact after a nerve-wracking end to the final match of the final round.
First up I got involved in Sky's "to qualify" market which is constructed by one (or maybe even two) of the more knowledgeable compilers in the business so there are certainly no easy pickings and hasnt been one I have been able to get on top of so far.
Nevertheless upped my outlay this time and despite getting a fair few through to the final round, they began to drop like stones, Tom Ford was beaten 5-2 by Steve Davis, Stuart Pettman by the same score to Michael Judge and Ricky Walden 5-1 to Fergal O Brien (had also had double the stakes on the man from Flintshire to compound matters).
That meant if Martin Gould went under to Nigel Bond, I had lost my whole portfolio, amounting to something like £850 but in a tense finale he edged out my former fellow local league player 5-4 to land the 9/2 odds which I had also topped up at 10/11 in the match betting markets.
The tension wasnt all down to that however as mid way through the event I had what can only be described as a mad moment by lumping on Judd Trump in a variety of bets, singles and combinations to beat Barry Pinches, who I had seen hopelessly out of touch in the Masters qualifiers before Christmas losing to Lewis Roberts, a rookie on the tour.
However on this occasion Pinches wasnt missing when he was in, compiling a 136 break amongst three frames he won practically in one visit to oust Trump 5-3 with the Bristol youngster failing to qualify for an event proper for the first time this season.
I started off by putting Trump in a sizeable treble (the other two both won in a canter of course) but then decided I wasnt content with that, having a single with both the original compilers and then PP when they opened at a slightly better price, getting combined odds of about 1/3.
Of course I also had him in my "to qualify" bets too, so the whole schamoodle totted up to about £900 which is far more than my average stake resting on one outcome.
Hopefully I have re-learned a lesson not to link one match to many different bets, to be honest I have done this in the past and shouldnt be going over the same mistakes so will have to write these rules down and stick as rigidly as possible to them in future.
I think the main motivation was actually travelling to see some of the matches like the Masters qualifiers, I wanted to make the most out of what I saw, in this case an out of touch Pinches, so was trying to capitalise on that too quickly when of course the reality in snooker is that things can change very quickly in a few weeks.
Anyhow luckily the rest of the matches went pretty well with some decent winners at odds against - Ian Preece winning twice at 2/1 against Andrew Higginson and Stuart Bingham - plus Paul Davies obliging at 9/4 against new dad Barry Hawkins. In the end I was in profit on the match betting somehow but the "to qualify" market bets cancelled that out.
In some ways it was an opportunity missed as it should have been a big earner but in the circumstances I was happy enough to come out of it with no damage and a lesson learned.
The Championship League cranks into action again next week with Round 3 so will be compiling some prices over the weekend, the new players this time are John Higgins, Neil Robertson and Barry Hawkins who come in to join Mark Williams, Ding Junhui, Joe Perry and the ever present Ali Carter.
While on the subject of the baize our own local league team as expected found the visit of the current leaders too much to handle but we put up a decent show with a narrow 3-2 defeat. With myself losing on the black and another of us on the pink it could even have been a grand victory but we'd have settled for two points beforehand. The young lad I brought in at the start of the season is starting to impress a bit now with three successive wins and seems to have gotten over his temperament problems for the time being anyhow, though now of course one of the other teams at the top has been showing an interest in getting a hold of him for next season. I told them we want at least £1-m and nothing less, plus he will lose my coaching skills too of course lol!!
My individual defeat ended a run of eight successive victories which was much needed after a bit of a dodgy start but I blame it on going out cavorting in the snow with our border collie, some of the drifts up on the moor were coming up to my waist and by the time I had waded up there and back again I was stiffening up by the time of the match. I started to feel aches where I didnt know I had muscles and the cue action felt awful, in the circumstances not really sure how I managed to stay in contention so long. Anyway no matches to report next week as the team we were due to play have disbanded, if they had seen me playing last week they would probably have gotten back together again very quickly as they licked their lips at the prospect lol.
On to the dogs and have just witnessed my two ante post picks in the Springbok at Wimbledon get through to the final.
Was cursing my luck when both Nebuchadnezzar (11/2) and Deanridge Casper (66/1 ew) were drawn in the same heat with only two qualifying but straight from the traps they were at the head of affairs and had the race between them off the final bend, the shorter priced dog always holding sway by a couple of lengths or so.
With the favourite falling in the first heat, both should have a good chance of being in the money on Tuesday on the live Sky card so thats an exciting one to look forward to.
In the Arc at Swindon, my four ante post picks were halved after the first round heats but favourite Shaneboy Luke (4/1) and Corrig Vieri (20/1) both made it through to the next stage.
And in Ireland after watching the first round heats of the Joe Dunne Memorial puppy event at Shelbourne, I came up with a four dog portfolio from the next round onwards consisting of the impressive Faypoint Man (4/1), fast finishing Barefoot Bryan (7/1) plus kennelmates Mardocs Foster (16/1) and Skywalker Queen (20/1) who fought out a close finish in one of the heats last weekend.
The opening weekend of the gaelic football leagues was mixed from a betting viewpoint with two losers cancelling out two winners. In the outright markets, both my Division One picks Derry (8/1) and Galway (10/1) won their opening matches, as did Monaghan (5/1) in Division Two and Louth (8/1) in Division Three while Wicklow (7/2) earned a creditable draw travelling to one of the other likely challengers Antrim.
The hurling comes to the fore this Sunday and I have ignored the more obvious claims of Kilkenny to go with Galway (6/1) and Clare (20/1) in Division One outright. Not sure I will be having any bets in round one though as most of the teams are depleted at this stage of the season and its all a bit up in the air as to how the teams will cope.
There is a skeleton football card with Division Four only but again at first glance nothing much stands out.
In the traditional football world, I enjoyed a fine victory for my team Derby County at local rivals Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup 4th round on Wednesday, despite getting caught in a horrendous traffic jam en route which meant we missed the first 10 minutes (including the opening Forest goal) it was all worth it in the end.
Was panicking a bit on the way back to the car though after our win as we found ourselves amongst a host of angry locals and then My Dad, who had come with me, apparently completely oblivious to the situation, started asking me questions about who I thought played well for Derby at the top of his voice (he also had his earphones in for the radio and didnt realise how loudly he was talking). I ignored him anyway and scurried off ahead, leaving the Forest fans wondering who he was talking to lol.
Anyway on the evidence of Wednesday I'm laying both Plymouth (who host Derby) and Forest (who entertain QPR) on Saturday. Both teams I'm taking on have injury problems and Derby have played some very good football under Clough in the last two or three games while QPR were quite impressive at Pride Park a few games ago with their new signings fitting in pretty quickly it seemed.
Finally the aussie rules season gets underway this weekend with the pre season tournament the NAB Cup staging its first match between West Coast and Collingwood. A fair few of the teams dont consider winning the be all and end all in this knockout event so perhaps there is leeway to find an outsider who is at least trying to do the business. Therefore I've gone with two improving teams from last year Richmond Tigers at 12/1 and North Melbourne Kangaroos at 16/1, although they are both away from home which does seem a bit of a negative looking at past results in the cup.
Speaking of which I had a rather bizarre dream about kangaroos last night but will refrain from the rest of the story or I think someone will be trying to get me into a straightjacket pretty soon!
Anyway, onwards and upwards
All the best for now
Rick
The main stresses came about via the recent Welsh Open snooker qualifiers which were held in Prestatyn. With three books pricing them up for the most part, there were plenty of opportunities but after making rather a monumental blunder half way through I just about came out of it intact after a nerve-wracking end to the final match of the final round.
First up I got involved in Sky's "to qualify" market which is constructed by one (or maybe even two) of the more knowledgeable compilers in the business so there are certainly no easy pickings and hasnt been one I have been able to get on top of so far.
Nevertheless upped my outlay this time and despite getting a fair few through to the final round, they began to drop like stones, Tom Ford was beaten 5-2 by Steve Davis, Stuart Pettman by the same score to Michael Judge and Ricky Walden 5-1 to Fergal O Brien (had also had double the stakes on the man from Flintshire to compound matters).
That meant if Martin Gould went under to Nigel Bond, I had lost my whole portfolio, amounting to something like £850 but in a tense finale he edged out my former fellow local league player 5-4 to land the 9/2 odds which I had also topped up at 10/11 in the match betting markets.
The tension wasnt all down to that however as mid way through the event I had what can only be described as a mad moment by lumping on Judd Trump in a variety of bets, singles and combinations to beat Barry Pinches, who I had seen hopelessly out of touch in the Masters qualifiers before Christmas losing to Lewis Roberts, a rookie on the tour.
However on this occasion Pinches wasnt missing when he was in, compiling a 136 break amongst three frames he won practically in one visit to oust Trump 5-3 with the Bristol youngster failing to qualify for an event proper for the first time this season.
I started off by putting Trump in a sizeable treble (the other two both won in a canter of course) but then decided I wasnt content with that, having a single with both the original compilers and then PP when they opened at a slightly better price, getting combined odds of about 1/3.
Of course I also had him in my "to qualify" bets too, so the whole schamoodle totted up to about £900 which is far more than my average stake resting on one outcome.
Hopefully I have re-learned a lesson not to link one match to many different bets, to be honest I have done this in the past and shouldnt be going over the same mistakes so will have to write these rules down and stick as rigidly as possible to them in future.
I think the main motivation was actually travelling to see some of the matches like the Masters qualifiers, I wanted to make the most out of what I saw, in this case an out of touch Pinches, so was trying to capitalise on that too quickly when of course the reality in snooker is that things can change very quickly in a few weeks.
Anyhow luckily the rest of the matches went pretty well with some decent winners at odds against - Ian Preece winning twice at 2/1 against Andrew Higginson and Stuart Bingham - plus Paul Davies obliging at 9/4 against new dad Barry Hawkins. In the end I was in profit on the match betting somehow but the "to qualify" market bets cancelled that out.
In some ways it was an opportunity missed as it should have been a big earner but in the circumstances I was happy enough to come out of it with no damage and a lesson learned.
The Championship League cranks into action again next week with Round 3 so will be compiling some prices over the weekend, the new players this time are John Higgins, Neil Robertson and Barry Hawkins who come in to join Mark Williams, Ding Junhui, Joe Perry and the ever present Ali Carter.
While on the subject of the baize our own local league team as expected found the visit of the current leaders too much to handle but we put up a decent show with a narrow 3-2 defeat. With myself losing on the black and another of us on the pink it could even have been a grand victory but we'd have settled for two points beforehand. The young lad I brought in at the start of the season is starting to impress a bit now with three successive wins and seems to have gotten over his temperament problems for the time being anyhow, though now of course one of the other teams at the top has been showing an interest in getting a hold of him for next season. I told them we want at least £1-m and nothing less, plus he will lose my coaching skills too of course lol!!
My individual defeat ended a run of eight successive victories which was much needed after a bit of a dodgy start but I blame it on going out cavorting in the snow with our border collie, some of the drifts up on the moor were coming up to my waist and by the time I had waded up there and back again I was stiffening up by the time of the match. I started to feel aches where I didnt know I had muscles and the cue action felt awful, in the circumstances not really sure how I managed to stay in contention so long. Anyway no matches to report next week as the team we were due to play have disbanded, if they had seen me playing last week they would probably have gotten back together again very quickly as they licked their lips at the prospect lol.
On to the dogs and have just witnessed my two ante post picks in the Springbok at Wimbledon get through to the final.
Was cursing my luck when both Nebuchadnezzar (11/2) and Deanridge Casper (66/1 ew) were drawn in the same heat with only two qualifying but straight from the traps they were at the head of affairs and had the race between them off the final bend, the shorter priced dog always holding sway by a couple of lengths or so.
With the favourite falling in the first heat, both should have a good chance of being in the money on Tuesday on the live Sky card so thats an exciting one to look forward to.
In the Arc at Swindon, my four ante post picks were halved after the first round heats but favourite Shaneboy Luke (4/1) and Corrig Vieri (20/1) both made it through to the next stage.
And in Ireland after watching the first round heats of the Joe Dunne Memorial puppy event at Shelbourne, I came up with a four dog portfolio from the next round onwards consisting of the impressive Faypoint Man (4/1), fast finishing Barefoot Bryan (7/1) plus kennelmates Mardocs Foster (16/1) and Skywalker Queen (20/1) who fought out a close finish in one of the heats last weekend.
The opening weekend of the gaelic football leagues was mixed from a betting viewpoint with two losers cancelling out two winners. In the outright markets, both my Division One picks Derry (8/1) and Galway (10/1) won their opening matches, as did Monaghan (5/1) in Division Two and Louth (8/1) in Division Three while Wicklow (7/2) earned a creditable draw travelling to one of the other likely challengers Antrim.
The hurling comes to the fore this Sunday and I have ignored the more obvious claims of Kilkenny to go with Galway (6/1) and Clare (20/1) in Division One outright. Not sure I will be having any bets in round one though as most of the teams are depleted at this stage of the season and its all a bit up in the air as to how the teams will cope.
There is a skeleton football card with Division Four only but again at first glance nothing much stands out.
In the traditional football world, I enjoyed a fine victory for my team Derby County at local rivals Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup 4th round on Wednesday, despite getting caught in a horrendous traffic jam en route which meant we missed the first 10 minutes (including the opening Forest goal) it was all worth it in the end.
Was panicking a bit on the way back to the car though after our win as we found ourselves amongst a host of angry locals and then My Dad, who had come with me, apparently completely oblivious to the situation, started asking me questions about who I thought played well for Derby at the top of his voice (he also had his earphones in for the radio and didnt realise how loudly he was talking). I ignored him anyway and scurried off ahead, leaving the Forest fans wondering who he was talking to lol.
Anyway on the evidence of Wednesday I'm laying both Plymouth (who host Derby) and Forest (who entertain QPR) on Saturday. Both teams I'm taking on have injury problems and Derby have played some very good football under Clough in the last two or three games while QPR were quite impressive at Pride Park a few games ago with their new signings fitting in pretty quickly it seemed.
Finally the aussie rules season gets underway this weekend with the pre season tournament the NAB Cup staging its first match between West Coast and Collingwood. A fair few of the teams dont consider winning the be all and end all in this knockout event so perhaps there is leeway to find an outsider who is at least trying to do the business. Therefore I've gone with two improving teams from last year Richmond Tigers at 12/1 and North Melbourne Kangaroos at 16/1, although they are both away from home which does seem a bit of a negative looking at past results in the cup.
Speaking of which I had a rather bizarre dream about kangaroos last night but will refrain from the rest of the story or I think someone will be trying to get me into a straightjacket pretty soon!
Anyway, onwards and upwards
All the best for now
Rick
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