Friday, 31 July 2009

Blog on a sabbatical

I think I'm going to take a sabbatical from the blog for the time being as amongst other things, I've lost a bit of inspiration and of course I still need to catch up on the horse racing (as I've been saying for the last couple of years!!) plus I'm also getting around a few of the dog tracks, attended Sheffield last week and Perry Barr tonight each for the first time, so that leaves less time for the stay at home punting I'm afraid.
But its a bit dull being behind a computer screen all day so I feel its best to mix and match and get out there in the elements every now and again. Plus the football is starting too so will be out at a fair few of the Rams games on Saturdays from now on.
Anyhow its time to concentrate on the matters at hand so will maybe catch you later in the year or else on the Daq2Daq Forum, though dont worry, if Betfair announce an increase of their premium charge next month (a year on from its introduction) I will no doubt be back fairly pronto to voice my condemnation on here lol.
In the meantime good luck to anyone who's punting regularly and may the force be with you, keep it fun and hopefully you'll end up on the right side.
All the best for now
Rick

Monday, 20 July 2009

That "after the Lord Mayor's show" feeling

An inbetween sort of post this week, as I usually try to get the blog out around Friday or Saturday, so this might be the only one for the fortnight, thank goodness everyone says lol.
Yes I've definitely felt lacking in inspiration despite having a cracking punting week the one before last, perhaps its an "after the Lord Mayors Show" type of feel and its maybe easy to relate why some teams find it hard to lift themselves after a particularly impressive performance.
I'm also maybe feeling a bit melanchony as any sports you seem to win consistently on, the firms gradually make the slots where you put your money in smaller and smaller until you can hardly get anything on (I suppose understandably so in the circumstances). Though of course the ones you are no good at you can probably get a four figure sum lol.
Normally this is where the exchanges come in, who should be acting purely as a go between between interested parties, but nowadays of course Betfair seem to want to play bookmaker too, asking for a minimum 20% cut of any proceeds if you are a regular winner on top of the 3-5% commission that usually applies.
I still find it hard to believe they can target normal gamblers with this unforgiveable stance: more understandable if it was aimed at traders who are not taking big risks or people with an inbuilt advantage in the markets I suppose, but I really don't think its any of their business snooping around in my account and in effect stealing money out of it.
If this ever becomes the norm in exchange land I'll long remember the perpertrators thats for certain.
I suppose obstacles are there to be overcome and as quite a stats man its maybe feasible to operate a kind of break even strategy to go along with the bona fide money making account, perhaps running two separate strategies on one account to make sure you pay the 20% commission without anyone from Betfair putting their hand in your drawers.
Anyhow for the time being I'm at Betdaq and will see how it progresses, I just see a time when most of the business will have to be on the exchanges as the avenue of the bookies will be mostly closed off if we aspire to get where we want, fair enough theres always the option of visiting the big local shops in person though its not quite as convenient of course.
About the only result that didnt go my way the week before last was when old stager Jimmy White beat Barry Hawkins 8-6 in the Sangsom Six Red Grand Prix final in Thailand, which would have made me £625 if the result had gone the other way, and gambler that I am, I didnt lay off either as didnt see any value in the Whirlwind at evens.
Overall though perhaps my second best week ever in a couple of years, though a bit behind the one where the money from the 125/1 Walden windfall came in.
The last week has been pretty even, I lost a couple of my gaelic football outrights as Antrim and Galway lost out in their respective finals, the latter to an injury time point after staging a great comeback. Derry also bowed out of the All Ireland Championship qualifiers at Donegal in extra time.
That said, two or three of the match bets went my way so didnt do any damage.
The Sky dogs night at Sunderland saw Crown Rover land a 14/1 ante post punt in the Grand Prix but Droopys Bogart was knocked out of the Classic final so you win some and lose some.
Had got tickets for the Splendour in Nottingham show this weekend with headliners Madness the last on the bill but then found out one of my fave reggae bands of all time Third World were playing Derby Caribbean Carnival the same day for FREE!!
Strangely enough I then noticed they were due to play the Bernie Grant Centre in Tottenham the same night (how many bands would do that!) which surely meant they were going to be on quite early in Derby.
So it probably meant a straight choice between Third World and The Pogues, who were understudies to Madness, and it was always no contest really. For a start I've always preferred the clean cut type of image so Shane McGowan's rotting teeth didnt greatly appeal really. I always remember refusing to buy Dexy's Midnight Runners "Come on Eileen" in the 80s mainly cos the band were all showing their hairy armpits on TOTP, even though I thought it one of the best sounds of the time.
I eventually relented about 20 years down the line though and bought their "Best of" when I decided there were worse things in life than seeing a few pubic hairs on TV!!
Anyhow I set out to do both Derby and Nottingham and it couldnt have dovetailed better. Third World did about forty minutes in Derby from 7.30-8.10 before somehow embarking on their trip to the capital (what dedication - they even had to make do without their bass player who was denied a visa for some reason).
I must say the reception to most of the bands didnt seem overly enthusiastic though I suppose most of the people there weren't hardcore fans of the acts themselves which makes a difference plus for the most part it was torrential rain too.
The highlights of the set were as you would expect the big hits "Now That We've Found Love" and the Stevie Wonder collaboration "Try Jah Love" though was a bit upset we didnt get to hear "Dancing on The Floor" which was the track that first got me interested in the band.
At least they said they may be back next year. A word for the compere too, he really put on a fantastically enthusiastic display, I'm sure he would have been quite watchable on his own for the entire evening given his all round repertoire of singing, dancing and comedic ability.
I then hotfooted it to Woollaton Park and after parking up outside and a very long walk down the driveway, arrived just in time to see Madness starting their set at 9pm in front of an unbelievably large crowd, one of the biggest I've seen at a pop concert.
All the classics were reeled off and my particular favourites were "Bed and Breakfast Man", "My Girl", "House of Fun", "Our House" and "It Must Be Love" to name but a few.
All the best for now
Rick

Saturday, 11 July 2009

Just time to say hello, wave goodbye!

An interesting and busy week, just squeezing the blog in between watching lots of live sport, again missed my Friday deadline but I have an excuse honest.
We've been having a new boiler in at home and so the workmen have been here at the crack of dawn turning the electricity on and off in between occasionally falling through the ceiling from the loft above (honest).
Well at least a whole leg was in view until the fall was broken by the refrigerator below!
Anyway will have to be a quick one today as I'm about to watch two of my outright picks Monaghan and Derry go head to head in half an hour which starts a back to back GAA marathon for around six hours of online coverage assuming I can get access to all the feeds.
I've also got a big interest in tomorrows matches with Dublin attempting to beat the improving Kildare in the Leinster final and Tipperary trying to justify favouritism against Waterford in the Munster hurling showdown.
Last weekend saw Cork (who I'd backed for the Munster football at 13/8 outright) fall over the line with a one point win over Limerick after being well adrift at one stage, and maybe they can thank the referee somewhat for the award of a slightly controversial penalty which kept them in touch early in the game when they couldnt find any rhythm at all. I'm glad I didn't take the 1/8 available on the day anyhow as there would have been more pleasant afternoons to be had!
In the match betting I claimed a winner through Wicklow who saw off the disappointing Fermanagh though the refs call rather went against me this time in my other pick when Monaghan conceded a highly dubious last minute late free to Armagh who forced the draw though ultimately losing out in extra time.
The aussie rules betting has picked up too lately and had a few more successes this morning. Carlton as they seem to do made hard work of landing the 3/10 against Richmond but always just held the upper hand while Essendon looked attractively priced on the road at Sydney and they justified support at 6/5 with a comfortable success.
Luckily I was just snooping around on a sports forum the other night and found that Geelong were likely to be missing several regulars for their match with Brisbane so armed with that info before most of the bookies I took the 33/10 that was available and also the 5/6 on the +20 handicap. Both were never in much doubt and it turned out the Cats had even more players missing than first thought, around half the team infact!
Most of that was down to the legacy of a bruising encounter with fellow Championship contenders St Kilda the week before, and I think I'll also take on Saints themselves in the handicap market with a long interstate journey to West Coast on the agenda tomorrow and being asked to give up 31.5 points. Not one I'm confident in, but the type of match where tiredness or an "after the lord mayors show" type of feeling may creep in.
It's been a pretty decent week on the snooker too, I seem to be doing better on these out of season events than I was actually doing all last year strangely enough.
I had a few Group bets in the Sangsom Six Red Grand Prix in Bangkok and landed three winners out of seven, though two of them were bigger stakes too so returned a modest overall profit.
John Higgins got off to a nightmare start with a 5-0 loss to unknown Pakistan cueist Mohammed Sajjad, but part of that was attributable to arriving late and having three frames docked. Eventually though he came through to head affairs by winning the rest of his games.
Shaun Murphy was always at the top in his section, and had already done enough by the time of a 5-1 loss to Nigel Bond in his last group game.
And Ryan Day also came up with the goods eventually with a 5-3 win over Supoj Saenla enough to see him narrowly overhaul Ken Doherty and Michael Holt.
Out of my four outrights, all at decent odds, I was hoping rather than expecting but thankfully Barry Hawkins at 25/1 has made it through to the final with an impressive 7-2 in over Judd Trump in the semis, and now faces veteran Jimmy White in tomorrow afternoon's showdown which can be seen live on the net on Modernine TV.
I probably struck one of my worst bets of the year on the cricket this week but got away with it luckily. I'd taken 4/7 about Essex to beat Glamorgan, knowing they were without three major players in Bopara, Cook and Kaneira but having consulted their fans website they seemed of the opinion the signing of South African international Amla would be what was required to stiffen up the batting. Also I noted that the youngster Maynard was on England twelfth man duty and would miss the match for the visitors.
However I somehow managed to miss the fact that the Dragons had also been active in the player recruitment area and Herschelle Gibbs unknown to me was making his debut.
He scored a half century and I was soon regretting my bet when Glamorgan amassed well over 500 and Essex were then skittled out for just 200.
Thankfully Amla lived up to the fans expectations second time around with a great knock of 180+ which somehow saved a game they looked certain to lose.
I've taken some 5/6 about Kent in their current match at Surrey. The home side knocked up just short of 400 which seems a decent total but it can be hard to tell sometimes until both teams have batted. I'll probably settle for a draw there now as well though thought the inclusion of Joe Denly after England Lions duty and South African Wayne Parnell, who had a successful World Twenty20 campaign might give them the ascendancy.
Last Sunday saw the end of my dreams of a big payout on Gloucestershire winning the Friends Provident Trophy when the 33/1 outright shots bowed out at the semi final stage despite a brave effort to overhaul a mammoth total set by Sussex at Hove.
And finally there was no Sky live dogs programme this week, I almost decided to go up to Sheffield's Owlerton Stadium on Tuesday for the first time but with heavy rain the order of the day decided against it, which was lucky as the hare stopped halfway through the night which meant a long delay, and also caused some angry scenes apparently with winning punters unhappy on the ruling about the lucrative Jackpot on offer that night (it was much reduced due to a void race).
I've still got a few active in the ongoing Sunderland festival but with throw in time looming for the gaelic football, I'll say adios and be lucky for now.
Catch you later
Rick

Saturday, 4 July 2009

Anyone for a Lord Toffingham revival petition?

This hot weather is not much fun when your brain is working overtime trying to come up with the latest bets but then again suppose its the same whatever you're doing though there are plenty who seem to positively enjoy it.
I think its fine if you have nothing to do but it does make you feel very lethargic and I have the freezer stocked up with dozens of ice lollies to get me through this latest heatwave. What a pity they dont do Lord Toffinghams any more, think I might start a petition for a revival! That toffee bit in the middle was simply magical.
Anyhow enough of my longings, overall its been a pretty satisfactory kind of week.
Although the dogs haven't been as kind to me in the last few weeks as previously, I still managed to land the Irish Oaks winner last Saturday, Skywalker Queen (10/1) who became the fastest bitch ever to run the trip at Shelbourne Park. And then in a damage limitation exercise, Corporate Attack won the Corn Cuchuilan at 6/1 which meant in essence I was about even on both events (work that out lol).
Of course the reason being I had also backed a few losers too along the way and perhaps my staking plan wasn't the best either, with a host of each way dabbles out of the money in the latter event not helping the coffers.
Anyhow last night's 6/1 winner seems to have persuaded Mr Power to limit my bets on the dogs, even though I made a loss on the Corn Cuchilian as a whole which seems a strange reaction, though I suppose it may be a totting up process.
On the Sky dogs Cesarewich night Melodys Comet looked like landing a 6/1 punt after going clear at one stage but was agonisingly reeled in by the favourite He Went Whoosh on the run in much to my dismay, a good effort from the winner though to overcome early scrimmaging.
I'm also struggling to get on with the GAA bets in some quarters, the ones that are winning keep seeming to occur with the same companies which isnt helping matters though does perhaps show that some of the compilers are a bit out of sync with others.
Last week I quite fancied Antrim to continue the good work after their "shock" win in Donegal and backed them at 2/1 to win against Cavan in the Ulster semi final.
I thought it was a good price until I saw someone offering 3.65 on the exchanges!
Cavan were unimpressive in the main in the previous win against Fermanagh, but had the one quality scorer on the pitch in Seanie Johnston. This time around things were probably not alot different, but with them trading at odds on this time as opposed to odds against, it was time to take them on.
Even I wasn't quite expecting the dominance the Saffrons showed and it was amazing how the game was still in the balance until quite near the end given the amount of possession Antrim enjoyed. Anyhow they did enough to take the spoils and I also had a bit of the 5/4 on the +2 handicap as a bonus.
Dublin looked a stonewall banker against the hapless Westmeath and although I'm not normally in favour of taking such short odds I did have some of the 1/5 before it disappeared and should maybe have taken the -6 handicap bet too as they had already knocked it off within about ten minutes lol.
Instead of that one I decided to side with Sligo to stay within the +6 margin up against Galway and despite a sluggish start with only two points in the first half hour they upped the ante to the stage that they were level with only a couple of minutes left.
Things turned out well in the remaining minutes for Galway with a goal and a point sealing a narrow win and as they were my Connaught outright picks that suited me down to the ground and the handicap bet was won too.
So I'm still in a healthy outright position for the provincial football outrights - Galway, Dublin, Cork and Antrim (the latter at 125/1 though I dont expect to collect there!) are all through to their respective finals and I also have Tipperary at 7/4 contesting the Munster hurling showdown too.
The cricket action slowed down a bit this week with a return to County Championship action. After getting used to batsmens strike rates being over a run a ball, Steve Stubbings of Derbyshire took 110 balls for 19 runs in their match against Leicestershire this week so I am mighty glad I didnt make the journey on this occasion as it must have been something akin to slow water torture.
The good run of form on the match betting has continued with Durham defeating Leicestershire in the last round of 20/20 matches at 4/6 and Somerset (4/7) somehow engineering a remarkable win over Yorkshire in the four day game thanks largely to a big hitting century from Peter Trego after it had seemed certain to be a draw earlier on.
And the aussie rules has joined in the fun too with a couple of winners this morning in Port Adelaide and West Bulldogs so I'm still keeping slightly infront overall in that sphere even though at more than one stage I've been thinking of curtailing that arm of betting.
The snooker is back this week with the Sangsom Six Red Tournament in Thailand for decent prize money and I've largely followed the formbook with a few bets in the respective groups while plumping for a few outsiders in the outrights. Have got online coverage lined up for the semis and finals but hoping something else crops up so we can see some of the rest of the event, its always better if you can see how your money went up in smoke rather than hear about it (or is it) lol.
All the best for now and apologies for being a day late!
Rick